LI NING(HK:02331) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-23 08:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 revenue met expectations, with dynamic discount management ensuring healthy inventory levels. The company maintains its profit forecast for 2024 at 3.1 billion, 3.41 billion, and 3.7 billion HKD, corresponding to PE ratios of 12.3, 11.2, and 10.3 times [2][3] - The company is actively expanding new products and channel development to address multi-tier market and consumer demand changes, with a focus on running and outdoor categories [2] - A joint venture with Red Shirt China has been established to accelerate overseas market development, with the company holding a 29% stake [2] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (in million HKD): 25,803 in 2022, 27,598 in 2023, projected 28,047 in 2024, 30,290 in 2025, and 32,417 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.3%, 7.0%, 1.6%, 8.0%, and 7.0% respectively [3] - Net profit (in million HKD): 4,064 in 2022, 3,187 in 2023, projected 3,096 in 2024, 3,410 in 2025, and 3,701 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 1.3%, -21.6%, -2.8%, 10.1%, and 8.5% respectively [3] - Gross margin: 48.4% for 2022 and 2023, projected to increase to 49.2% from 2024 onwards [3] - Net margin: 15.7% in 2022, 11.5% in 2023, projected to be 11.0% in 2024, 11.3% in 2025, and 11.4% in 2026 [3] - ROE: 16.7% in 2022, 13.1% in 2023, projected to decline to 10.9% in 2024, then stabilize at 11.1% from 2025 onwards [3] - EPS (diluted): 1.6 in 2022, 1.2 in 2023, projected to remain at 1.2 in 2024, then increase to 1.3 in 2025 and 1.4 in 2026 [3] - P/E ratios: 9.4 in 2022, 11.9 in 2023, projected to be 12.3 in 2024, 11.2 in 2025, and 10.3 in 2026 [3] - P/B ratios: 1.6 in 2022 and 2023, projected to decline to 1.3 in 2024, 1.2 in 2025, and 1.1 in 2026 [3]