2025年回顾：品牌业绩承压、制造高开低走，纺服指数跑输大盘 （1）行业数据：服饰品牌社零增速平缓，纺织制造关税冲击下出口转弱。今年服装社零增速在Q2、Q3 低基数下并未明显加速，但9-10月基数升高的情况下，增长反而提速。东南亚鞋服类出口增速相对好于 中国，关税影响下，整体增速由年初至今呈现放缓趋势。（2）板块业绩总结：前三季度纺织制造业务 高开低走，服装家纺营收降幅收窄。细分板块中，运动服饰细分赛道品牌流水增速较好，休闲家纺线上 渠道普遍好于线下，代工制造收入增长放缓，纺织材料外销增长好于内销。（3）行情复盘：A股年内 纺服指数跑输大盘，品牌预期持续下调，制造估值缓慢波动上升;港股年内纺服指数同样跑输大盘，重 点公司基本面小幅下滑、估值跟随大盘波动. 国信证券发布研报称，2025年纺服行业整体承压，品牌端表现平淡，制造端受关税影响出口前高后低。 2026年预计制造端将先于品牌服饰企稳复苏，投资或聚焦于三方面，具有持续增长韧性的运动户外赛 道、受益于订单回稳且具备效率优势的优质制造企业，以及能够通过产品创新与营销突破实现品牌革明 的公司。 国信证券主要观点如下： 2026年展望，纺织制造企稳预期先于品牌服饰 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of value as an anchor in the textile and apparel industry, suggesting a shift towards innovative strategies to break through competitive pressures [1][3]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The textile and apparel index underperformed the broader market, with brand performance under pressure and manufacturing showing a high-to-low trend [4][9]. - Retail sales growth for apparel remained stable, with online channels outperforming offline, particularly in the second and third quarters [18][19]. - The overall performance of the textile manufacturing sector showed a decline in exports due to tariff impacts, with a notable slowdown in growth rates [28][30]. Group 2: 2026 Main Lines - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2026: 1. The outdoor sports segment is expected to thrive, focusing on niche positioning and technological innovation [3][5]. 2. High-quality products are anticipated to drive new demand, with opportunities in the trillion-yuan market for breakthrough players [3][5]. 3. Trade stability is expected, favoring leading manufacturers with improving market share and efficiency [3][5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: outdoor sports, quality manufacturing, and brand innovation, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [5][6]. - Notable companies include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, which are positioned well for future growth [5][6]. Group 4: Company Performance - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts and investment ratings for key companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector despite recent challenges [6][7]. - Companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning are projected to maintain strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective forecasts of 5.42 and 1.09 for 2026 [6].

Core Insights - The "Double 11" shopping festival serves as a significant window to observe new consumer trends, showcasing the rise of domestic brands in the e-commerce sector, particularly in beauty and fashion categories [1][2]. Group 1: Rise of Domestic Brands - Domestic brands are increasingly dominating sales on e-commerce platforms, with brands like Proya leading in beauty sales and nine out of the top ten clothing brands being Chinese [1]. - The success of domestic brands is attributed to a cultural and economic shift, reflecting national confidence and a transformation from "made in China" to "created in China" [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Quality Revolution - The rise of domestic consumption is linked to supply-side innovations and a quality revolution, moving away from the stereotype of low-quality products [2]. - Brands like Proya and Bosideng exemplify this shift, with Proya focusing on R&D and quality, while Bosideng combines technical expertise with fashionable design [2]. Group 3: Cultural Confidence and Consumer Identity - The resurgence of domestic brands is driven by a collective awakening of cultural confidence among younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, who are increasingly valuing local culture over Western brands [2][3]. - Brands such as Chi Xia and Sanji Heihua have rapidly grown, reflecting a desire among young consumers to connect with traditional Chinese culture [2]. Group 4: Understanding Consumer Needs - Domestic brands excel in understanding and innovatively expressing consumer needs, capturing subtle changes in local aesthetic preferences [3]. - Successful cases include the popularity of Palace Museum cultural products and the rise of brands like Li Ning and White Elephant Foods, which resonate emotionally with consumers [3]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Digital Marketing - The robust industrial system and efficient supply chain in China enable domestic brands to respond quickly to market changes, facilitating flexible production [3]. - Innovations in digital marketing, such as live-streaming and social media engagement, allow domestic brands to connect directly with consumers, enhancing brand narratives [3]. Group 6: Challenges Ahead - Despite rapid growth, domestic brands face challenges such as avoiding homogenization, transitioning from "hit products" to sustainable success, and building brand resilience [4]. - Continuous investment in R&D, deeper cultural understanding, and improved service systems are essential for domestic brands to maintain their market position [4]. Group 7: New Consumer Paradigm - The rise of domestic consumption reflects a shift in consumer behavior, where quality, design, cultural significance, and emotional value are prioritized over price [4]. - This transformation is reshaping market competition and driving the upgrade of Chinese manufacturing and cultural expression [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese sports consumption market remains active in 2025, with various sports becoming part of daily life, including marathons, trail running, and tennis [1] - Sports brands are both participants in competitions and drivers of industry development, focusing on technology iteration, consumer engagement, and brand influence in daily life [1] Group 1: Ball Sports - Traditional ball sports like basketball, football, and volleyball maintain a stable market with competitive trends, with over 10 brands innovating in basketball technology [2] - Brands are engaging in grassroots events and high-profile sponsorships, with numerous collaborations and athlete endorsements intensifying [2][5] Group 2: Racket Sports - Racket sports, including table tennis, tennis, and badminton, show stability with brands focusing on equipment technology updates and professional collaborations [8] - Tennis is identified as a growth area, with over 10 brands entering the market, launching high-tech products, and sponsoring youth events [8] Group 3: Emerging Ball Sports - The golf market is evolving towards an ecosystem of "technology + events + community," with brands lowering entry barriers and promoting youth engagement [10] - Pickleball is emerging as a trendy sport, with brands promoting it as a lifestyle activity through events and community engagement [14] Group 4: Running - The running market remains competitive, with brands focusing on racing technology and closer engagement with runners through events and training camps [16] - Trail running is seen as a growth area, with new international brands entering the market and established brands expanding their offerings [23][25] Group 5: Outdoor Sports - The outdoor sports sector continues to grow, with a significant increase in related enterprises and international brands entering the Chinese market [33] - Outdoor technology is advancing, with brands focusing on extreme environment adaptability and lightweight features [34] Group 6: Women's Sports - Yoga and Pilates are key segments for women's sports, with competition centered around professional experiences and community engagement [37] - Comprehensive training markets are solidifying, with brands hosting large-scale events to connect with fitness enthusiasts [39] Group 7: Overall Market Trends - Across various sports categories, brands are demonstrating strategic capabilities and market insights, with technology as a core competitive advantage and a focus on local community connections [40] - The "Annual Sports Brand" award serves as an industry benchmark, reflecting innovation and guiding future brand development [43]

Core Insights - Li Ning publicly unveiled its Super Capsule Technology at the 14th National Sports Science Conference, marking a significant breakthrough for its 2024 technology platform [1] - The technology utilizes advanced materials and a unique supramolecular polymer outer layer to create a capsule system that achieves energy storage and rapid rebound through a dual airbag effect [1] - Third-party tests indicate that the midsole material has a density of 0.1g/cm³, an energy return rate of 95%, and a rebound response time of 3 milliseconds, with only a 0.6% deformation rate after 100,000 fatigue tests, equivalent to five marathons [1] Technology Development - Li Ning has established a "Technology R&D + Sports Science Research" dual-engine technology platform, with its Sports Science Research Center founded in 2008 [1] - The center has developed a youth sports database and an Asian foot shape database with thousands of samples, collaborating with over 30 universities and research institutions, resulting in over 130 papers and 549 patents [1] - The Super Capsule Technology continues the path of technology platformization initiated in 2019, with the current platform comprising four major branches, covering over 60% of the company's footwear products [1] Strategic Focus - The General Manager of Li Ning's Footwear R&D Innovation System, Xu Jian Guang, emphasized that research and innovation are key driving forces for brand development and upgrades [1]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, +19%, 0%, +1%, and +2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (+88%), Asics (+47%), and Descente (+35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (+55%), Berghaus (+41%), and Camel (+39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, Dazzle (+93%), Li Ning (+85%), and Xuezhongfei (+49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October (+0.7%) while wool prices decreased significantly (-20.9% month-on-month) [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies reported mixed revenue performances in October, but outlooks remain optimistic. Companies like Ju Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth-quarter orders in textile manufacturing are expected to recover, suggesting a potential turnaround for companies facing difficulties [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7] Key Company Performance Predictions - Shenzhou International: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 4.37 in 2025 and 4.96 in 2026 [7] - Huayi Group: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 2.85 in 2025 and 3.48 in 2026 [7] - Kai Run Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 1.52 in 2025 and 1.78 in 2026 [7] - New Australia Co.: Maintain "Outperform" rating with an estimated EPS of 0.63 in 2025 and 0.71 in 2026 [7]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products showing growth rates of 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was negatively impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases in October, while wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - Taiwanese companies in the textile sector are optimistic about future revenue, with several companies expecting a recovery in orders and revenue in the fourth quarter [1][6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery in orders, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, Huayi Group, and Kai Run Co., which are expected to benefit from improved order visibility and market demand [3][6][7] - In branded apparel, the report recommends focusing on high-end segments and brands in the sports and outdoor categories, highlighting Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Tebu International as key players [3][6]

Market Overview - In October, the A-share textile and apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with textile manufacturing performing better than branded apparel. Since November, the sector has continued to show strong performance, with branded apparel increasing by 3.4% and textile manufacturing by 2.9% [1][12] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index fell by 4.9% in October but has since turned positive in November [1][19] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in September grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1][21] - E-commerce showed strong performance in October, with all categories experiencing month-on-month growth. Outdoor apparel led year-on-year growth, with sportswear, outdoor wear, leisure wear, home textiles, and personal care products growing by 0%, 19%, 0%, 1%, and 2% respectively [1][21] - Leading brands in sportswear included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth. In leisure wear, brands like Dazzle (93%), Li Ning (85%), and Snow Flying (49%) experienced rapid growth [1][21] Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, the textile export growth in October was impacted by high base effects from the previous year, with Vietnam's textile exports declining by 1.0% year-on-year and China's textile exports down by 9.1% [1][21] - Cotton prices showed slight increases and decreases in October, with domestic cotton prices up by 0.7% and imported cotton prices down by 0.9%. Wool prices decreased significantly, down 20.9% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [1][21] - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies showed varied revenue performance in October, with optimistic future outlooks. Companies like Ju Hong and Wei Hong reported strong order visibility and expected revenue recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][21] Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The fourth quarter is expected to see order recovery, with diminishing tariff impacts and stabilizing order placements [3][6] - Key companies to watch include Shenzhou International, which benefits from tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, and Huayi Group, which is seeing continuous improvement in profitability [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the health run project in the Shanghai Marathon has sparked significant reactions among running enthusiasts, highlighting the event's unique status and the challenges of managing a large number of participants [2][5][11]. Group 1: Shanghai Marathon's Special Status - The Shanghai Marathon, established for 28 years, is a prestigious event with a "pilgrimage" status among runners, akin to the lottery system for housing in Shanghai [5]. - This year, the total number of applicants for the full marathon and health run reached 356,589, with a full marathon acceptance rate of only 7.2% and a health run acceptance rate of 38.3% [7]. Group 2: Decision to Cancel Health Run - The decision to cancel the health run is seen as a "subtraction" aimed at enhancing the professional and international reputation of the marathon, as health runs accounted for 40% of the total 38,000 slots [11]. - The cancellation also includes the controversial charity run, which was perceived as a "money-grabbing" opportunity, conflicting with the spirit of professional competition [11]. Group 3: Shift Towards Professionalization - The decision reflects a shift towards professionalization and elitism in top-tier events, encouraging community and park runs to take on the role of promoting public fitness [13]. - The trend of professionalization in events parallels the evolution of running gear, with runners now seeking specialized equipment tailored to different running scenarios [13][17]. Group 4: Evolution of Running Gear - The running shoe market has seen a shift towards specialized footwear, with carbon plate shoes becoming standard for competitive runners, and various designs catering to different terrains and needs [17][21]. - The importance of selecting appropriate running shoes is emphasized, as improper footwear can lead to injuries, highlighting the need for shoes that provide cushioning, support, stability, and grip [19][21]. Group 5: Growth of Trail Running - Trail running has gained popularity, with numerous events taking place across the country, and a significant portion of participants aged between 22 and 55 [29][31]. - The choice of appropriate trail shoes is crucial for safety and performance, with specific designs catering to various terrains and conditions [35]. Group 6: Rise of Hiking Shoes - Hiking shoes have become a new choice for urban commuting, reflecting a shift in workplace attire towards comfort and practicality [41]. - The functionality of hiking shoes, including waterproof materials and slip-resistant soles, meets the demands of urban commuters while blending outdoor practicality with urban fashion [47]. Group 7: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The market for specialized footwear is expanding, with both international and domestic brands innovating to meet diverse consumer needs [52][56]. - The evolving consumer mindset reflects a deeper connection to lifestyle choices, where footwear represents not just functionality but also identity and lifestyle expression [61][63].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing increased short-term operational pressure, with a decline in average transaction value across all channels in Q3 2025. However, the e-commerce channel has shown growth [3][7]. - The company is expected to face significant pressure on revenue and gross margin levels, with a need to balance expenses and growth to meet annual targets. The introduction of new products and marketing efforts are aimed at revitalizing brand momentum [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The current stock price is HKD 17.10 as of November 7, 2025 [5]. Operational Performance - In Q3 2025, the overall transaction value declined, with a notable drop in both direct and wholesale channels, while the e-commerce channel saw an increase [3][7]. - Monthly retail performance continues to be under pressure across all product categories [7]. Inventory and Discounts - Inventory levels are expected to rise due to preemptive stocking for events like Double Eleven, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains manageable. Discounting is anticipated to deepen, particularly in Q4 [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.589 billion, 2.773 billion, and 2.993 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -14%, +7%, and +8% [9]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be 15.55, 14.52, and 13.45 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].