温氏股份：猪鸡盈利高增，回购分红彰显发展信心

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue increase of 16.56% and a net profit increase of 241.47% for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a revenue of 75.419 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.408 billion yuan [2] - The profitability of the pig business shows elasticity, with the average selling price of pigs in Q3 2024 at approximately 19.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [2] - The company has announced a share buyback plan of 900 million to 1.8 billion yuan and a cash dividend of 999.5 million yuan, indicating confidence in long-term development [2] - The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are projected to be 10.665 billion, 9.621 billion, and 10.231 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.0, 13.3, and 12.5 times [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 75.419 billion yuan, a 16.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.408 billion yuan, a 241.47% increase [2] - In Q3 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 28.662 billion yuan, a 21.95% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 3097.03% [2] - The average selling price of pigs in Q3 2024 was 19.5 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 23.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.7% [2] - The company’s asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.86% as of Q3 2024, down 4.1 percentage points from H1 2024 and 6.6 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2][4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 102.779 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.32% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.665 billion yuan, with a net profit growth rate of 278.9% [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.60 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 12.0 times based on the closing price on October 22 [3][4]