POP MART(09992) 信达证券·2024-10-23 08:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) is not explicitly mentioned in the report, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook due to strong revenue growth and upward revisions in profit forecasts [1][2] Core Viewpoints - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, with overall revenue increasing by 120%-125% YoY, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [1] - Domestic revenue grew by 55%-60% YoY, while overseas revenue surged by 440%-445% YoY, significantly outperforming the company's initial guidance [1] - The company's IP commercialization capabilities have been validated, with overseas markets contributing 29 7% of total revenue in H1 2024, surpassing the full-year 2023 overseas revenue [1] - Pop Mart's diversified business model, including IP incubation, retail, theme parks, and digital entertainment, is expected to drive future growth [2] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic revenue growth was supported by multiple channels: retail stores (+30-35% YoY), robot stores (+20-25% YoY), Pop Mart's online box-drawing machine (+55-60% YoY), and e-commerce platforms (+135-140% YoY) [1] - Overseas revenue growth was driven by the opening of flagship stores and key locations, with notable performances in Thailand, where a Labubu-themed store achieved over RMB 10 million in sales on its opening day [1] Business Expansion - Pop Mart is actively exploring new business models, including theme parks, games, and PTS toy exhibitions, which have already shown profitability [2] - The company plans to open 30-40 new overseas stores in H2 2024, with Q4 expected to contribute over 40% of annual sales due to the holiday season [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 12 1 billion, RMB 17 1 billion, and RMB 22 2 billion, representing YoY growth of 92%, 41%, and 30%, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2 68 billion, RMB 4 14 billion, and RMB 5 70 billion for 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 148%, 54%, and 38% [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1 99, RMB 3 08, and RMB 4 24, with corresponding P/E ratios of 29X, 19X, and 14X as of October 22, 2024 [2] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 61 32% in 2023 to 66 08% in 2026, driven by higher overseas revenue and economies of scale [6] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 17 18% in 2023 to 25 65% in 2026, reflecting the company's improved profitability [6]