Western Mining(601168) 华龙证券·2024-10-23 09:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.725 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.93%. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 11.748 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.02%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 2.732 billion yuan, up 24.33% year-on-year, with Q3 net profit reaching 1.112 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.91% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that copper prices have reached historical highs in 2024, with the LME copper price exceeding 11,000 USD/ton. The average domestic copper price for the first three quarters was 74,840.28 yuan/ton, up 9.29% year-on-year, and the average price for Q3 was 75,207.19 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.75% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the second phase of the Yulong Copper Mine, which is projected to produce 158,700 tons of copper concentrate in 2024, contributing significantly to profit growth. The mine's processing capacity will increase to 22.8 million tons/year after the completion of the expansion project in November 2023 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 39.762 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.55%. For 2023, revenue is projected at 42.748 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.51%. The forecast for 2024 is 47.390 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.86% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 3.446 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.51%. The forecast for 2023 is 2.789 billion yuan, showing a decline of 19.06%, while 2024 is expected to recover to 3.665 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 31.40% [2] - The company’s EPS for 2024 is projected to be 1.54 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.9 times, 10.6 times for 2025, and 9.3 times for 2026 [2][3] Comparable Company Valuation - The report compares the company with peers such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals, indicating that the current valuation of the company is reasonable [1][2]