Gan & Lee(603087) 国泰君安·2024-10-23 09:10Investment Rating - Maintains "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 60.03 [1][4] Core Views - Strong performance growth driven by insulin procurement price increases and overseas business expansion [1][3] - GLP-1 data shows excellent results, with R&D pipeline progressing steadily [1][3] - Insulin procurement saw both volume and price increases, with core products like insulin glargine securing a 34.1% price hike [3] - Overseas business is accelerating, with emerging markets showing a 37.63% YoY increase in international sales [3] - GLP-1 receptor agonist GZR18 demonstrated a 17.29% weight reduction in Phase IIb trials, indicating best-in-class potential [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at CNY 3,418 million, a 31.1% YoY increase [2] - Net profit attributable to parent company for 2024E is forecasted at CNY 715 million, a 110.3% YoY increase [2] - EPS for 2024E is expected to be CNY 1.19, with ROE at 6.2% [2] - Revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 reached CNY 2.245 billion, up 17.81% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company at CNY 507 million, up 90.36% YoY [3] Business Highlights - Domestic insulin sales for 2024Q1-Q3 reached CNY 1.802 billion, up 13.94% YoY, with volume contributing 4.45% and price contributing 9.49% [3] - International sales for 2024Q1-Q3 reached CNY 242 million, up 37.63% YoY, with Q3 sales up 72.10% YoY [3] - Franchise service revenue for 2024Q1-Q3 reached CNY 135 million, up 34.49% YoY [3] R&D Progress - GLP-1 receptor agonist GZR18 showed a 17.29% weight reduction in Phase IIb trials, indicating strong potential [3] - Insulin weekly formulation GZR4 and dual insulin compound GZR101 are progressing through Phase II trials [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is 42.16x, with a P/B ratio of 2.60x [2][6] - 2025E P/E ratio is projected at 24.86x, with a P/B ratio of 2.39x [2][6]