Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Nonferrous Mining (1258.HK) [1][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 314 million in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 23%. In Q3 alone, the net profit was USD 95 million, up 38% year-on-year but down 30% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The increase in profit is primarily attributed to the year-on-year rise in copper prices, which reached CNY 75,200 per ton in Q3 2024, a 9.5% increase year-on-year and a 6.1% increase quarter-on-quarter. However, production was affected by power shortages, leading to a shortfall in meeting annual production guidance [1]. - The company produced 95,900 tons of cathode copper in the first three quarters, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year, achieving approximately 69% of its annual target. The production of crude copper and anode copper was about 287,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, achieving around 70% of the annual target [1]. - The report highlights both organic growth and external acquisitions as key growth drivers. The company is advancing projects in Africa and has potential acquisitions in the pipeline [1]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of USD 395 million, USD 436 million, and USD 513 million for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be USD 0.10, USD 0.11, and USD 0.13 [2][4]. - The P/E ratios based on the closing price on October 22, 2024, are projected to be 7x for 2024, 7x for 2025, and 6x for 2026 [2][4]. Financial Metrics - The total revenue for 2023 is forecasted at USD 3.606 billion, with expected growth rates of -11.9% for 2023, 12.4% for 2024, 15.9% for 2025, and 5.5% for 2026 [2][6]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2023 to 10.37% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. - The company's total assets are expected to grow from USD 3.820 billion in 2023 to USD 6.239 billion by 2026, reflecting strong growth in asset base [4][6].
中国有色矿业：2024年三季度生产经营报告点评：业绩稳健增长，产量有所下滑