特步国际：流水稳健增长，库存健康，KP剥离进度顺利推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted earnings forecast for 2024-2026 set at 1.237 billion, 1.395 billion, and 1.526 billion respectively, corresponding to a PE of 11 times for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 showed a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, with retail discount levels around 75%. The inventory turnover days were approximately 4 months, indicating stable operational quality. The company expects a double-digit growth in terminal revenue due to improved consumer environment and holiday spending [1][2]. - E-commerce sales are projected to grow significantly, with high double-digit growth expected, driven by an improved e-commerce environment and optimized product structure. Offline channel revenue is expected to remain flat due to fluctuations in customer traffic [1][2]. - The company has successfully maintained healthy inventory levels, with terminal discounts remaining stable compared to Q2 2024. The inventory turnover days have improved year-on-year, reflecting effective management measures [1][2]. - The domestic business of Saucony is developing smoothly, with a revenue growth of over 50% in Q3 2024, continuing the strong growth trend from the first half of the year [1]. - The progress of the KP business divestiture is on track, with an expected 20% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024. The actual sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival will be crucial for achieving the annual sales plan [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 12.93 billion, with a growth rate of 29.1%. In 2023, revenue increased to 14.35 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 13.54 billion, indicating a decline of 5.6% [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 922 million, increasing to 1.03 billion in 2023, with a projected growth of 20.1% to 1.24 billion in 2024 [3][6]. - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is expected to be 0.47, with a net asset return rate of 12.2% [3][6].