LZLJ(SZ:000568) Soochow Securities·2024-10-23 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The consumption environment has been under pressure, with mainstream liquor companies adjusting their strategies. From April to September, consumption weakened significantly, with retail growth rates for dining and liquor categories declining [2] - The company's expectations for 2025 show a notable improvement, as the market anticipates a recovery after a significant decline in the liquor sector, where the company experienced a maximum drop of nearly 46% [2] - Recent personnel adjustments within the company are expected to stabilize expectations and provide clearer guidance for 2025 [2] - The company is responding to both downgrading and upgrading demands with a diverse product strategy, maintaining stable performance in various price segments [2] - The revenue forecast has been adjusted downwards due to weak consumption in the second half of 2024, with expected revenues of 326.6 billion, 360.1 billion, and 414.6 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 30,233 in 2023, 32,659 in 2024, 36,006 in 2025, and 41,458 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.34%, 8.02%, 10.25%, and 15.14% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million yuan) is expected to be 13,246 in 2023, 14,196 in 2024, 15,798 in 2025, and 18,508 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.79%, 7.17%, 11.28%, and 17.16% respectively [1] - The current market valuation corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15, 13, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected dividend yield of 4.2% for 2024 [2]