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九丰能源:2024年三季报点评:单三季度扣非业绩稳健LNG销量提升&毛差修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 17.048 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.75% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.535 billion yuan, an increase of 35.69% year-on-year [1] - The company's clean energy segment shows resilience, with LNG gross profit per ton recovering compared to H1 2024, driven by growth in domestic sales and demand from industrial terminals, transportation fuel, and gas power plants [1] - The company plans to distribute fixed cash dividends of 750 million, 850 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with special cash dividends triggered when annual net profit growth exceeds 18% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.535 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.69%, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.208 billion yuan, up 2.23% year-on-year [1] - The weighted average ROE increased by 2.65 percentage points to 18.08% [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 819 million yuan, a decrease of 40.87% year-on-year, while the asset-liability ratio was 35.19%, down 12.01 percentage points year-on-year [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 has been raised from 1.52 billion yuan to 1.71 billion yuan, with 2025 and 2026 net profits maintained at 1.74 billion yuan and 2.04 billion yuan respectively [2] - Corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 10.3, 10.1, and 8.6 times [2] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 27.49 yuan, with a one-year low of 21.35 yuan and a high of 31.59 yuan [3] - The market capitalization is approximately 17.56 billion yuan [3]