POP MART(09992) 开源证券·2024-10-23 23:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [1][4] Core Views - Pop Mart's Q3 2024 revenue growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong domestic online business and rapid overseas expansion [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow 120-125% YoY in Q3 2024, with domestic business up 55-60% and overseas business surging 440-445% [4] - Profit forecasts have been revised upwards, with projected net profits of 2 7/3 59/4 54 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to EPS of 2 01/2 68/3 38 yuan [4] Domestic Business Performance - Retail store revenue grew 30-35% YoY in Q3 2024, up from 25% in H1 2024 [5] - Robot store revenue increased 20-25% YoY, compared to 16% in H1 2024 [5] - Blind box machine revenue surged 55-60% YoY, a significant improvement from 7% in H1 2024 [5] - E-commerce and other online platforms saw overall revenue growth of 135-140%, with Douyin up 115-120% and Tmall flagship store up 155-160% [5] - Wholesale and other channels grew 45-50% YoY [5] - The company had 457 domestic retail stores as of October 2024, an increase of 24 stores from H1 2024 [5] Overseas Business Expansion - Overseas revenue grew 440-445% YoY in Q3 2024, accelerating from 259 6% in H1 2024 [6] - The company had 113 overseas stores as of Q3 2024, with 23 new stores added since H1 2024 [6] - Regional store distribution: 48 in East Asia, 26 in Southeast Asia, 10 in Europe, 13 in Australia, and 16 in North America [6] - TikTok US sales reached $11 89 million (~84 7 million yuan), while Thailand sales hit 840 million THB (~180 million yuan) [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 12 17 billion yuan in 2024E to 20 3 billion yuan in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 93 1%/33 2%/25 2% [7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 2 7 billion yuan in 2024E to 4 535 billion yuan in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 149 4%/33 1%/26 2% [7] - Gross margin is forecast to improve from 64 0% in 2024E to 64 2% in 2026E [7] - Net margin is projected to remain stable at 22 2-22 3% from 2024E to 2026E [7] - ROE is expected to peak at 25 2% in 2025E before slightly declining to 24 0% in 2026E [7] - P/E ratio is forecast to decrease from 28 7x in 2024E to 17 1x in 2026E [7]