TSMC(US:TSM) Great Wall Securities·2024-10-24 02:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [10] Core Views - TSMC's performance is driven by strong demand from AI and advanced semiconductor technologies, with revenue guidance for 2024 being raised to approximately 30% growth [5][6] - The company reported a significant increase in Q3 2024 revenue and net profit, with revenue reaching 759.69 billion NTD, up 39% year-over-year, and net profit at 325.26 billion NTD, up 54.2% year-over-year [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue (Million USD): - 2022A: 73,670 - 2023A: 70,599 - 2024E: 91,687 - 2025E: 116,240 - 2026E: 138,749 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): - 2022A: 28.7 - 2023A: -4.2 - 2024E: 29.9 - 2025E: 26.8 - 2026E: 19.4 [1] - Net Profit (Million USD): - 2022A: 32,311 - 2023A: 27,816 - 2024E: 36,108 - 2025E: 48,530 - 2026E: 58,347 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): - 2022A: 51.3 - 2023A: -13.9 - 2024E: 29.8 - 2025E: 34.4 - 2026E: 20.2 [1] - Gross Margin: - Q3 2024: 57.8%, exceeding previous expectations of 53.5% to 55.5% [2] - R&D and SG&A Expense Ratios: - R&D: 6.95% - SG&A: 3.46% [2] Market Position and Growth Drivers - Advanced process nodes (7nm and below) accounted for 69% of total wafer revenue in Q3 2024, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes contributing 20%, 32%, and 17% respectively [2] - The company anticipates that AI demand will continue to drive growth in the semiconductor industry, with healthy growth expected in smartphones and PCs [5][6] - TSMC's advanced packaging business is projected to grow significantly, with CoWoS capacity expected to double year-over-year [2]