LXBY(002884) 开源证券·2024-10-24 05:01Investment Rating - Buy rating (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the plastic sanitary pump industry, with products including plastic sanitary pumps, stainless steel pumps, and general pumps [4] - The company benefits from North American inventory replenishment and interest rate cuts, driving export growth [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 444/508/584 million yuan from 2024 to 2026, with EPS of 1.24/1.42/1.63 yuan per share [4] - The current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 16.7/14.6/12.7x, lower than the industry average [4] Plastic Sanitary Pumps - The company is a top brand in plastic sanitary pumps, with exports to North America and Europe accounting for nearly 70% of direct exports [5] - In H1 2024, plastic sanitary pump revenue grew by 35%, driven by strong inventory replenishment demand [5] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September 2024 are expected to further boost exports [5] Stainless Steel Pumps - The company is a top-tier player in the domestic stainless steel pump market, with revenue growing from 187 million yuan in 2014 to 507 million yuan in 2024, a CAGR of 12% [6] - Stainless steel pumps are more energy-efficient than traditional cast iron pumps, saving 10%-20% in electricity, though they are 20%-30% more expensive [6] - The company is expected to benefit from domestic infrastructure projects and equipment replacement policies [6] High Dividend and Capacity Expansion - The company has implemented cash dividends for 7 consecutive years since its IPO, with a cumulative dividend of 1.9 billion yuan [7] - In 2023, the company paid a dividend of 360 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 93.2% and a dividend yield of 5.8% [7] - The company has planned to expand its centrifugal pump capacity to 8 million units over the next five years, with the production site already completed [7] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is expected to be 1.557 billion yuan, up 18.4% YoY, with net profit of 444 million yuan, up 15.6% YoY [8] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 35.4%, with a net margin of 28.5% [8] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 19.1%, with EPS of 1.24 yuan per share [8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is a leader in the plastic sanitary pump market, with a strong presence in North America and Europe [5][6] - The company's stainless steel pumps are well-positioned to benefit from domestic infrastructure projects and equipment replacement policies [6] - The company's high dividend payout and capacity expansion plans provide a solid foundation for future growth [7] Industry Outlook - The global pump market is expected to reach 466.5 billion yuan in 2024, with the Chinese market expected to reach 250 billion yuan [43] - The plastic sanitary pump market is expected to benefit from the North American real estate cycle and inventory replenishment [5] - The stainless steel pump market is expected to benefit from domestic infrastructure projects and equipment replacement policies [6]