温氏股份：Q3业绩超预期，猪价高位支撑盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.92 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 18 times the earnings for 2024 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of 286.4 billion CNY in Q3 alone, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, and a net profit of 50.8 billion CNY, up 3097.0% [1]. - The high pork prices are expected to support profitability, with the average selling price of pork in September 2024 at 19.05 CNY per kilogram, and a projected increase in sales volume in Q4 [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback plan, reflecting confidence in its long-term development and stock price [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 753.8 billion CNY, a 16.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 64.1 billion CNY, up 241.5% [1]. - The cumulative sales volume of live pigs reached 21.56 million heads, achieving 65%-72% of the annual target of 30-33 million heads [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.95 billion CNY to shareholders [1]. Cost and Pricing Trends - The cost of pig farming has decreased, with the comprehensive breeding cost dropping below 6.9 CNY per kilogram [1]. - The company expects further cost reductions in Q4, primarily from piglet and feed costs [1]. - Chicken production remains stable, with a total sales volume of 870 million birds and a revenue of 24.463 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024 [1]. Profit Forecasts - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2025, predicting net profits of 96 billion CNY for 2024, 127 billion CNY for 2025, and 129 billion CNY for 2026 [2][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 has been slightly lowered due to trends in pork and chicken prices, while the margin for 2025 has been adjusted upwards [2][5].