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迈威尔科技：Marvell首次覆盖报告：数通芯片龙头，开启AI计算新征途
MRVLMarvell Technology(MRVL) 国泰君安·2024-10-24 05:39

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Marvell Technology (MRVL O) with a target price of 89[2]CoreViews−MarvellisexpectedtoseestronggrowthdrivenbyAIdemandindatacenters,withAI−relatedrevenueprojectedtoreach89 [2] Core Views - Marvell is expected to see strong growth driven by AI demand in data centers, with AI-related revenue projected to reach 1 5 billion in FY2025 and 25billioninFY2026[2]−Thecompany′sdatacenterbusinessisexpectedtogrowsignificantly,withrevenuefromthissegmentincreasingfrom402 5 billion in FY2026 [2] - The company's data center business is expected to grow significantly, with revenue from this segment increasing from 40% in FY2024 to 70% in FY2025H1 [2][22] - Marvell's custom chip business is in its early stages but is expected to experience explosive growth in 2026 and 2027, with the market for data center custom acceleration chips projected to reach 42 9 billion by 2028 [2][42] Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 5333millioninFY2025Eto5 333 million in FY2025E to 10 708 million in FY2028E, with a CAGR of 21% [1] - Non-GAAP net income is expected to increase from 1256millioninFY2025Eto1 256 million in FY2025E to 4 008 million in FY2028E, with a CAGR of 29% [1] - The PE ratio is projected to decline from 56 4x in FY2025E to 17 7x in FY2028E, indicating improving valuation metrics [1] Business Segments Data Center - Data center revenue is expected to grow from 3742millioninFY2025Eto3 742 million in FY2025E to 8 178 million in FY2028E, driven by AI demand and custom chip growth [10] - AI-related revenue is projected to account for 30% of total revenue in FY2025, with AI interconnect products contributing over 1billion[2]EnterpriseNetworking−Enterprisenetworkingrevenueisforecastedtorecoverfrom1 billion [2] Enterprise Networking - Enterprise networking revenue is forecasted to recover from 631 million in FY2025E to 986millioninFY2028E,followingaperiodofindustryadjustment[10]Automotive/Industrial−Automotive/industrialrevenueisexpectedtogrowfrom986 million in FY2028E, following a period of industry adjustment [10] Automotive/Industrial - Automotive/industrial revenue is expected to grow from 320 million in FY2025E to 554millioninFY2028E,drivenbyincreasingadoptionofautomotiveEthernet[10]Consumer−Consumerrevenueisprojectedtoremainstable,growingslightlyfrom554 million in FY2028E, driven by increasing adoption of automotive Ethernet [10] Consumer - Consumer revenue is projected to remain stable, growing slightly from 326 million in FY2025E to 359millioninFY2028E[10]IndustryAnalysis−Theglobalsemiconductormarketisexpectedtogrowby131359 million in FY2028E [10] Industry Analysis - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 13 1% in 2024, reaching 588 4 billion, driven by recovery in PC and smartphone markets [18] - The IC design market is highly concentrated, with the top 5 companies (Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, and MediaTek) accounting for 90% of the market [18] - Marvell ranks 6th in the global IC design market with $5 505 million in revenue in 2023, representing a 3% market share [19] Competitive Positioning - Marvell is a key player in the DSP market, holding a 60% market share in high-end DSPs [63] - The company is actively developing new technologies such as AEC PAM DSP, Sipho, LPO, and CPO, which are expected to contribute to future growth [65][72] - Marvell is the second-largest player in the commercial Ethernet switch chip market, with a 29% market share, trailing Broadcom [75]