Runben Biotechnology (603193) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-24 06:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of 30.69 yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.37 yuan from the previous estimate [4][5]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with steady growth across various product categories during the off-season. The recent launch of autumn and winter baby products on Douyin, including egg yolk oil essence cream, has shown promising results, leading to an optimistic outlook for Q4 during the peak season for baby products [2][4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 261 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenues were 293 million yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 81 million yuan, reflecting a 32% increase [4][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 57.6%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 27.55%, up 2.48 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The company expects revenues to grow to 1.322 billion yuan in 2024, 1.661 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.034 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits projected at 319 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 493 million yuan respectively [5][11]. Product and Channel Performance - In Q3 2024, the company experienced robust growth in various product categories, with baby care products, mosquito repellent, and essential oils seeing revenue increases of 28%, 18%, and 17% year-on-year respectively. Douyin's sales grew over 30% year-on-year, while Tmall remained stable [4][5]. - The company has successfully launched new products, which have significantly boosted sales on Douyin, with notable growth in GMV since late September [4][5]. Long-term Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a reshaping of competition in the baby care product category, focusing on product channel expansion and maintaining high growth rates. The company positions its products competitively in the 0-50 yuan price range, leveraging a self-built supply chain for cost advantages [4][5].