Richful(300910) 国泰君安·2024-10-24 06:39Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [1][2] - Target price adjusted to 54.46 RMB (previously 50.82 RMB) [2] Core Views - Q3 performance met expectations, but non-GAAP net profit slightly below expectations [1][2] - Long-term import substitution trend remains unchanged [1] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million RMB, in line with expectations, while non-GAAP net profit was 164 million RMB, slightly below expectations [2] - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 2.3 billion RMB, a YoY increase of 6.89%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 500 million RMB, up 10.91% YoY [2] - Q3 revenue was 800 million RMB, a YoY decrease of 1.71%, but a QoQ increase of 1.79% [2] - Q3 gross margin was 36.72%, up 0.75 pct YoY and QoQ, while net margin was 22.76%, down 1.99 pct YoY but up 1.56 pct QoQ [2] Financial Performance - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts adjusted to 2.33, 2.77, and 3.34 RMB (previously 2.43, 3.08, and 3.64 RMB) [2] - 2024E revenue is projected at 3.237 billion RMB, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 680 million RMB [3] - 2025E revenue is expected to reach 4.488 billion RMB, with net profit at 809 million RMB [3] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at 5.374 billion RMB, with net profit at 973 million RMB [3] Industry and Market Trends - China's lubricant additive exports in Q3 2024 increased by 14.97% YoY, with export volume reaching 69,500 tons [2] - Export price per ton was 20,234 RMB, down 12.06% YoY but up 3.96% QoQ [2] - Henan Province accounted for 37.7% of total exports, with export volume at 26,200 tons [2] - Compared to overseas competitors, domestic companies are expanding in niche markets with cost-effective products [2] Valuation and Comparables - 2024 PE ratio is set at 23.37x, based on comparable companies [2] - Comparable companies include Lanxiao Technology, Lionbridge, and Guoci Materials, with average PE ratios of 30.65x, 23.37x, and 18.62x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [9]