歌尔股份：盈利修复逻辑持续兑现，Q3业绩亮眼

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was strong, with revenue of 29.26 billion yuan, up 1.7% YoY and 38.9% QoQ, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, up 138.2% YoY and 32.5% QoQ [1] - New product launches from Meta and Apple drove Q3 revenue growth, while improved operational efficiency and utilization rates supported margin expansion [2] - The company's hedging strategy mitigated FX volatility, with hedging gains of 240 million yuan offsetting FX losses, allowing net profit to better reflect actual performance [2] - AR is expected to open a new product cycle, with the company well-positioned to benefit from AI+AR trends through its partnerships with Meta and Qualcomm [2] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is forecast at 98.77 billion yuan, up 0.2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion yuan, up 130.6% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is projected to grow 21.5% YoY to 120 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.53 billion yuan, up 40.5% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue is expected to reach 144.27 billion yuan, up 20.2% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.54 billion yuan, up 28.7% YoY [1] - Gross margin improved to 11.4% in Q3 2024, up 1.2 ppts YoY, while net margin was 3.75%, up 2.14 ppts YoY [1] Valuation - 2024E P/E is 33x, declining to 24x in 2025E and 18x in 2026E [1] - 2024E P/B is 2.5x, falling to 2.3x in 2025E and 2.1x in 2026E [1] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are forecast to grow from 73.74 billion yuan in 2023A to 99.99 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 8.15 billion yuan in 2023A to 10.25 billion yuan in 2026E [4] - Capital expenditures are expected to decline from 5.08 billion yuan in 2023A to 1.65 billion yuan in 2026E [6]