科思股份：客户去库叠加淡季、3Q24业绩波动，关注行业周期回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 was impacted by customer inventory destocking and seasonal factors, leading to a decline in revenue and gross margin. The gross margin was reported at 37.4%, down 12.7 percentage points year-on-year and 10.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to product price reductions and high fixed costs during the ramp-up phase of the Anqing factory [1][3] - The company expects improved demand for new and existing sunscreen products in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 as customers deplete their inventories from the previous quarters. This is anticipated to drive a recovery in gross margins [1] - The long-term outlook includes the commissioning of a new factory in Malaysia in 2025, which is expected to enhance market expansion in the U.S. and improve profitability due to tariff and cost advantages. The company has a robust pipeline of R&D projects, including moisturizers and hair conditioning agents, which are expected to be launched in the near future [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 453 million yuan, a decrease of 22.46% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened demand from downstream customers and a decline in sales of existing sunscreen products. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan, down 50.1% year-on-year [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of 664 million yuan, 769 million yuan, and 875 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.6% in 2024, followed by growth of 15.9% and 13.8% in the subsequent years [1][3] Cost and Expense Management - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points to 0.72%, while the management expense ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points to 9%. R&D expenses increased by 1.7 percentage points to 5.5% of revenue, indicating a commitment to ongoing innovation despite the decline in gross margin [1] Market Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in demand for sunscreen products in the upcoming quarters, which is expected to positively impact gross margins. The introduction of new products in the personal care segment is also expected to contribute to revenue growth [1]