科思股份：Q3量价皆承压拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.80 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of RMB 453 million, a year-over-year decline of 22.46% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 34.63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 92.68 million, down 50.09% year-over-year and 54.05% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.858 billion, a year-over-year increase of 4.69%, while the net profit was RMB 514 million, down 4.11% year-over-year [1][2]. - Key factors affecting performance include weak overseas sunscreen terminal demand, downstream customers digesting previous inventory, and changes in supply-demand dynamics due to terminal demand and industry competition, leading to price reductions for most old products and some new products, which in turn caused a decline in gross margin [1][2][3]. - Looking ahead to Q4, performance is expected to improve sequentially due to the traditional peak season for sunscreen, although year-over-year pressure may still exist. The downward price pressure is expected to ease, and new products such as anti-dandruff agents, carbomers, and high-end oils are anticipated to contribute to growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 revenue was RMB 453 million, down 22.46% year-over-year and 34.63% quarter-over-quarter. The net profit was RMB 92.68 million, down 50.09% year-over-year and 54.05% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was RMB 1.858 billion, up 4.69% year-over-year, while net profit was RMB 514 million, down 4.11% year-over-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 37.37%, down 12.73 percentage points year-over-year, and the net margin was 20.43%, down 11.36 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to price reductions [3]. Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been lowered to RMB 686 million, RMB 882 million, and RMB 1.098 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -6.51%, +28.66%, and +24.44%, respectively. The corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 2.02, RMB 2.60, and RMB 3.23 [4][5]. - The target price is set at RMB 33.80, based on a 13x PE for 2025, compared to a comparable company PE of 22x for 2025 [4][5].