NXBM(600449) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-24 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next six months [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in cement prices and the growth of its digital logistics business, which has shown significant revenue growth in recent years [2][4]. - The company has improved its gross margin and optimized its capital structure, with a notable increase in net profit margin in Q3 [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of 118 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.51%. For the first three quarters, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 677.3 million yuan and 171 million yuan, respectively, representing declines of 9.55% and 41.41% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 6.56%, down 1.97 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3's gross margin improved to 9.40%, up 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 306 million yuan, a decrease of 123 million yuan year-on-year, but the cash collection ratio improved to 68.94% [3][9]. Market and Operational Insights - The company’s cement production capacity in its main regions, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, is 7.6 million tons and 4.65 million tons, respectively. The average cement price in Q3 was 426 yuan per ton in Ningxia and 415 yuan per ton in Inner Mongolia, showing year-on-year increases of 9.3% and a slight decrease of 0.3% [2]. - The digital logistics business has seen a compound annual growth rate of 233% over the past three years, indicating strong potential for future growth [2][4]. Future Projections - The report has revised the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 210 million yuan, 330 million yuan, and 450 million yuan, respectively, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on expected price increases in Q4 [4][6]. - The company’s PE ratios for the forecasted years are projected to be 30, 19, and 14 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][5].