Huaneng Hydropower(600025) 财通证券·2024-10-24 00:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is the second-largest hydropower operator in China, holding the entire hydropower development rights of the Lancang River basin, with a total installed capacity of 29.2032 million kilowatts as of 1H2024, of which hydropower accounts for 25.9498 million kilowatts [2][19]. - The company is expected to release additional hydropower capacity in 2024-2025, with significant projects like the TB hydropower station and the Hardshell hydropower station contributing to a 10% increase in installed capacity [2][21]. - The tightening supply-demand balance is expected to push up local electricity prices, with the company benefiting from a competitive pricing strategy for electricity sent to Guangdong [2][3]. - The depreciation of existing assets is set to decrease, which will help release profits, alongside a reduction in financing costs from 4.33% in 2019 to 2.96% in 1H2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only platform for the integration of Huaneng Group's hydropower business, with a focus on the Lancang River basin [19][23]. Capacity Expansion - The company has a robust plan for capacity expansion, with the TB hydropower station expected to be fully operational by 2025 and the Hardshell hydropower station expected to start operations in late 2024 [21][30]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 25.547 billion, 28.696 billion, and 29.644 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.291 billion, 9.337 billion, and 9.922 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company has a clear shareholder return plan, committing to distribute at least 50% of its distributable profits as cash dividends [27][28]. Market Dynamics - The company is positioned to benefit from rising electricity prices due to a tight supply-demand situation in Yunnan province, where hydropower generation accounts for over 70% of total output [2][10]. - The company is actively involved in the construction of clean energy bases in Tibet, which are expected to start delivering electricity to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area by 2030 [31][32].