行动教育2024三季报点评：首次三季度分红，关注Q4消课节奏修复及收款表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 22.1% for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 563 million yuan, and a net profit increase of 21.1%, totaling 195 million yuan. The third quarter of 2024 saw a slight revenue increase of 0.3% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 5.7% [2][3] - The company announced its first-ever third-quarter dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 178 million yuan, which accounts for 91.32% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [2][5] - The company is focusing on the recovery of course consumption rhythm and collection performance in Q4, as the revenue pressure in Q3 was attributed to a slowdown in the consumption rhythm of concentrated EMBA courses [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 75.38%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of lower-margin consulting services [4] - The company’s cash collection remained flat year-on-year for the first nine months of 2024, with a contract liability of 965 million yuan at the end of Q3, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [3][4] Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividend payment rates of approximately 109%, 213%, 97%, and 91% for the periods of 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 783 million yuan, 909 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.46%, 16.13%, and 14.39% [6][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 259 million yuan, 302 million yuan, and 348 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 18.16%, 16.30%, and 15.24% [6][10]