Goldcard(SZ:300349) HTSC·2024-10-24 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.63, up from a previous target of RMB 14.85 [4][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 22.32 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.98 billion, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was RMB 7.48 billion, down 9.63% year-on-year, and the net profit was RMB 0.80 billion, down 12.17% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in performance due to delivery schedules, the long-term outlook remains positive, particularly for the domestic smart gas meter market, which is expected to benefit from increasing penetration rates [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2024 was 42.85%, an increase of 3.74 percentage points year-on-year and 0.23 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The selling, general, and administrative expense ratios for the first three quarters of 2024 were 17.76%, 4.38%, and 7.59%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the demand for smart gas meters is expected to rise due to government initiatives aimed at enhancing urban infrastructure and safety, which will likely drive the market for smart gas meters upward [3][4]. - The company is also expanding into smart water management, which could provide an additional growth avenue in the future [3]. Earnings Forecast - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 4.34 billion, RMB 5.36 billion, and RMB 6.25 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates [4][6].