泡泡玛特：海外拓展与新品放量共驱Q3超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 80 HKD [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 120-125% year-on-year for Q3, driven by strong performance in new product categories and rapid expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. - The domestic revenue growth was 55-60%, with notable contributions from the new plush toy category and successful IP launches [2]. - The overseas revenue saw an impressive increase of 440-445%, primarily due to strong store performance in Southeast Asia and online sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The company achieved a revenue increase of 120-125% in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with domestic revenue growing by 55-60% and overseas revenue by 440-445% [1]. - New product categories, particularly the plush toys, and the expansion into Southeast Asian and North American markets contributed significantly to this growth [1]. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic revenue growth of 55-60% was attributed to the rapid rollout of plush toys and successful sales from new IPs [2]. - Offline channels, including retail stores and robot stores, experienced growth rates of 30-35% and 20-25%, respectively, while online channels saw a 55-60% increase [2]. Overseas Expansion - The overseas revenue growth of 440-445% was driven by the addition of numerous new stores, particularly in Southeast Asia, where store count increased by 80-90% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved record sales during the back-to-school season in the U.S. through TikTok, indicating strong performance in the North American market [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in Q4, with expectations for new product categories and innovative business models to drive future performance [4]. - The expansion in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America, is still in its early stages, suggesting further growth potential [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 28.6 billion, 38.5 billion, and 48.1 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 80 HKD, reflecting a 25x adjusted P/E ratio for 2025 [5].