温氏股份：猪鸡双业表现佳，分红重视股东回报

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.53 [1][4][7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 75.4 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.41 billion, marking a return to profitability [1][2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 28.6 billion, up 22% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of RMB 5.08 billion, a significant increase of 3097% year-on-year and 98% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The strong Q3 performance is attributed to rising prices of pigs and chickens, alongside a decrease in costs for both, as well as increased volumes of both livestock [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company sold 21.56 million pigs in the first three quarters, an 18% increase year-on-year, with Q3 sales of 7.19 million pigs, up 9.9% year-on-year [2] - The average price for pigs in Q3 was RMB 19.5 per kg, a 24% increase year-on-year, while the cost of production was estimated at RMB 14.2 per kg, leading to a profit of over RMB 640 per pig [2] - The company sold 871 million chickens in the first three quarters, a 1% increase year-on-year, with Q3 sales of 323 million chickens, up 4.7% year-on-year [2] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 1.5 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 999.5 million, and has already distributed RMB 1.66 billion in dividends this year [3] - A share buyback plan of RMB 900 million to 1.8 billion has been announced, reflecting confidence in long-term growth [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company expects limited growth in pig supply in Q4 2024, with strong demand likely to support high prices [4] - The projected net profits for the company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 10 billion, RMB 13.4 billion, and RMB 13.1 billion respectively, with corresponding book values per share of RMB 6.48, RMB 8.29, and RMB 10.16 [4][10] - The company is assigned a price-to-book ratio of 3.08 for 2025, leading to the target price of RMB 25.53 [4]