CGN POWER(003816) 国泰君安·2024-10-24 10:14Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 5.75 RMB [2] - Current price is 4.22 RMB, indicating potential upside [2] Core Views - 3Q24 performance meets expectations with revenue of 228.9 billion RMB, up 11.3% YoY, and net profit of 28.7 billion RMB, up 4.9% YoY [8] - Controlled grid-connected electricity in 3Q24 reached 48.3 billion kWh, up 15.2% YoY, driven by new capacity and the restart of Taishan Nuclear Power [8] - Operating profit in 3Q24 was 5.64 billion RMB, up 6.0% YoY, with slower profit growth due to increased costs and R&D expenses [8] - The company has a robust pipeline of nuclear power projects, with 16 units under construction or in preparation, totaling 19.4 GW [8] Financial Summary - 1~3Q24 revenue reached 622.7 billion RMB, up 4.1% YoY, with net profit of 99.8 billion RMB, up 2.9% YoY [8] - 2024E revenue is projected at 865.79 billion RMB, up 4.9% YoY, with net profit of 114.05 billion RMB, up 6.3% YoY [9] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.23 RMB, with ROE expected to remain stable at 9.5% [9] Market Data - 52-week stock price range is 2.92-5.21 RMB [3] - Market capitalization stands at 213.104 billion RMB [3] - P/E ratio for 2024E is 18.68x, with a P/B ratio of 1.78x [9] Industry and Growth Prospects - The company benefits from China's push for clean energy, with 6 new nuclear units approved in 2024, the highest in recent years [8] - The company manages 16 nuclear units under construction or in preparation, with 7 units already under construction totaling 8.4 GW [8] - Future growth is supported by a strong pipeline of projects, including 9 units in preparation with a total capacity of 11.0 GW [8] Financial Ratios and Projections - 2024E gross margin is projected at 34.8%, with EBIT margin at 31.3% [10] - ROIC for 2024E is expected to improve to 6.1%, up from 5.7% in 2023A [10] - Capital expenditure is forecasted to increase to 15.878 billion RMB in 2024E, up from 14.232 billion RMB in 2023A [10] Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E P/E ratio of 19x is slightly higher than the peer average of 18x [11] - The company's 2024E P/B ratio of 1.78x is lower than the peer average of 2.34x [12]