中国广核（003816） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 2025 年报点评：电量稳增电价承压，机制电 价出台彰显核电基荷价值 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 78,945 | 75,697 | 81,691 | 87,789 | 92,938 | | 同比（%） | (4.37) | (4.11) | 7.92 | 7.46 | 5.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,838 | 9,765 | 10,338 | 11,497 | 12,537 | | 同比（%） | 1.06 | (9.90) | 5.87 | 11.21 | 9.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.43 | 23.79 | 22.47 | 20.20 | 18.53 | 证券分析师 袁理 执业证 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国广核（003816） 2025 年报点评：电量稳增电价承压，机制电 价出台彰显核电基荷价值 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 78,945 | 75,697 | 81,691 | 87,789 | 92,938 | | 同比（%） | (4.37) | (4.11) | 7.92 | 7.46 | 5.87 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,838 | 9,765 | 10,338 | 11,497 | 12,537 | | 同比（%） | 1.06 | (9.90) | 5.87 | 11.21 | 9.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 21.43 | 23.79 | 22.47 | 20.20 | 18.53 | [Table_Tag] ...

- **Tracking indicators and calculation methods** The report uses two key metrics: the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts and the proportion of net active buy transaction amounts. The large buy order transaction amount proportion reflects the buying behavior of large funds. It is calculated by restoring tick-by-tick transaction data into buy and sell order data based on bid and ask sequence numbers, filtering for large orders by transaction volume, and computing the proportion of large buy order transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount. The net active buy transaction amount proportion reflects investors' active buying behavior. It is calculated by identifying whether each transaction is an active buy or sell based on tick-by-tick transaction data, subtracting active sell transaction amounts from active buy transaction amounts, and computing the proportion of net active buy transaction amounts relative to the total daily transaction amount[7] - **Individual stock tracking** The report tracks individual stocks based on the two metrics mentioned above. For the past 5 trading days (20260323-20260327), the top 10 stocks with the highest average proportion of large buy order transaction amounts include New Energy Taishan (93.2%), Snow Wave Environment (85.7%), and Zhongli Group (85.4%). Similarly, the top 10 stocks with the highest average proportion of net active buy transaction amounts include Zhen De Medical (16.7%), China General Nuclear (15.9%), and Zhejiang Energy Power (12.6%)[9][10] - **Broad-based index tracking** The report applies the same metrics to major broad-based indices. For the past 5 trading days, the average proportion of large buy order transaction amounts for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 ranged from 69.5% to 73.7%. The average proportion of net active buy transaction amounts for these indices ranged from 1.0% to 3.2%[12] - **Sector tracking** The report tracks the metrics across various sectors based on the CITIC primary industry classification. For the past 5 trading days, sectors such as coal (78.4%), steel (78.7%), and real estate (78.9%) had high proportions of large buy order transaction amounts. Sectors like medicine (12.3%), steel (10.8%), and food & beverage (10.6%) had high proportions of net active buy transaction amounts[13] - **ETF tracking** The report tracks ETFs using the same metrics. For the past 5 trading days, the top 10 ETFs with the highest average proportion of large buy order transaction amounts include Guotai CSI A500 ETF (92.4%), Huatai-PineBridge CSI A500 ETF (92.1%), and Penghua CSI Oil & Gas ETF (91.3%). The top 10 ETFs with the highest average proportion of net active buy transaction amounts include Haifutong SSE Urban Investment Bond ETF (24.4%), Fuguo ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (19.4%), and Guotai SSE 10-Year Treasury Bond ETF (16.9%)[15][16]

Macro Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profits continued to show a strong start in January-February 2026, driven by accelerated industrial production, rising prices, and improved profit margins [1] - Profit distribution is skewed towards the midstream and upstream sectors due to rising resource prices and global capital expenditure [1] - The recovery in PPI readings is expected to support overall corporate profit recovery, although high oil prices may lead to differentiated impacts on profitability across sectors [1] Bond Market - The convertible bond market has resumed its upward trend, with investors advised to track market supply, policy rhythms, and geopolitical disturbances while making refined selections based on bond terms and underlying stock conditions [2] REITs Market - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs has continued to experience price declines for five consecutive weeks, with the CSI REITs index closing at 778.53, reflecting a return rate of -0.83% [3] Banking Sector - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 14.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 5.2 billion, up 22%, indicating accelerated revenue and profit growth [4] - Wuxi Bank achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion, a 2% increase, and a net profit of 2.3 billion, up 2.5%, showcasing resilient profit growth driven by corporate business [5] - Industrial Bank reported a revenue of 212.7 billion, a slight increase of 0.2%, and a net profit of 77.5 billion, up 0.3%, with a focus on expanding new business areas [7] - Postal Savings Bank's revenue growth improved sequentially, with a 2% increase in revenue and a 6.6% increase in PPOP [8] Non-Banking Financials - China Pacific Insurance reported a net profit increase of 25.5%, with future non-auto insurance business expected to maintain a leading position [9] - New China Life Insurance's net profit reached 36.28 billion, a 38.3% increase, with expectations for continued growth in new business value [10] - Ping An Insurance's net profit grew by 6.5%, with a slight downward adjustment in future profit forecasts [11] - China Insurance's net profit increased by 8.8%, with expectations for stable performance in both property and life insurance segments [12] Real Estate and Property Management - Jianfa Property achieved a revenue of 3.881 billion, a 17.8% increase, with a significant rise in property management service revenue [14][15] Chemical and Semiconductor Sector - Dinglong Co. reported a revenue of 3.66 billion, a 9.66% increase, and a net profit of 720 million, up 38.32%, with expectations for continued growth in the semiconductor sector [16] Oil and Gas Sector - China National Petroleum Corporation reported total revenue of 2864.5 billion, a decrease of 2.5%, and a net profit of 157.3 billion, down 4.5%, with a focus on increasing reserves and production [17] - CNOOC's total revenue was 398.2 billion, down 5.3%, with a net profit of 122.1 billion, down 11.5%, but with a positive outlook for future profit growth [18] Utilities Sector - China General Nuclear Power Corporation reported a revenue of 756.97 billion, down 4.11%, and a net profit of 97.65 billion, down 9.9%, with an upward revision in future profit forecasts [20] Food and Beverage Sector - Haitian Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 28.873 billion, a 7.3% increase, and a net profit of 7.04 billion, up 10.9%, indicating strong performance in the food sector [48] - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.47 billion, a 1% increase, and a net profit of 4.59 billion, up 5.6%, with a focus on maintaining strong brand advantages [51]

报告摘要 事件： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 公司发布2025年报。2025年，公司实现营收756.97亿元，同比-4.11%（调整后）；归母净利润97.65亿元， 同比-9.9%（调整后）。25Q4公司实现营收159.74亿元，同比-4.21%（调整后）；归母净利润11.89亿元， 同比+40.01%（调整后）。公司2025年度拟派发现金红利0.086元/股，股利支付率为44.47%，对应股息率 为1.85%（2026年3月27日股价）。 发电量增长有序，上网电价下行压制核电发电营收水平 25年公司控股机组发电量/上网电量分别为1947.38/1834.98亿千瓦时，分别同比+2.06%/+2.51%。其中防城 港核电站（防城港4号机组于2024年5月25日投 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The public utility sector saw a 1.56% increase this week, ranking second among 31 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.41% [22]. - The report highlights significant growth in installed wind power capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8% as of February [3]. - The report notes a rapid increase in domestic and imported thermal coal prices, with domestic prices rising by 25 CNY/ton and imported prices increasing by 10-20 CNY/ton [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of nuclear power profitability amid declining long-term contract prices in several provinces [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The public utility sector's performance this week was strong, with notable increases in thermal power (4.78%), wind power (4.33%), and solar power (1.61%) [22]. - The report indicates that the average clearing price for electricity in Shanxi decreased, while it increased in Guangdong [11]. Key Events - The National Energy Administration reported a total installed power generation capacity of 3.95 billion kW as of February, a 15.9% year-on-year increase [3]. - China National Power Investment Group plans to invest 200 billion CNY in 2026, a 17% increase from the previous year [3]. - Several power operators released their 2025 annual reports, showing varied revenue and profit trends [3]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like China General Nuclear Power, China Nuclear Power, and those involved in data center power supply, such as Gansu Energy and Longyuan Power [4]. - It also recommends long-term investments in companies with stable demand, such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The utility sector shows stable growth with improved cash flow and increased dividends. Despite a slight revenue decline of 3.3% year-on-year due to falling electricity prices, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 9.4% increase in profit from thermal power due to lower fuel costs [13][25] - The return on equity (ROE) for the utility sector stands at 8.6%, with thermal power ROE recovering to 9.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [13][25] - Cash flow has significantly improved, with operating cash flow increasing by 23.9% year-on-year. The free cash flow for thermal power has turned positive, while green power is close to breakeven [25][30] - Dividends have increased across all segments, with the overall dividend payout ratio rising by 2.5 percentage points to 55.2%. Thermal power saw a notable 15% increase in total dividends [30] Summary by Sections Annual Report Overview - The utility sector's performance is stable, with cash flow improvements and increased dividends. The revenue for the sector slightly decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.5% [13][25] - The ROE for the sector is 8.6%, with thermal power showing a recovery to 9.4% [13][25] - Operating cash flow increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and free cash flow for thermal power improved significantly [25][30] Industry Data Tracking - The report highlights the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy installations by leading companies, with significant declines in wind and solar electricity prices, which are expected to impact profitability [36] - The average on-grid electricity price for thermal power decreased by 1-3 cents per kilowatt-hour, while wind and solar prices fell by 7-10% [36] Sector Performance Tracking - The report indicates that the utility sector has outperformed the market, with the GFGY index showing a 15.74% increase year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 31.97% since 2020 [57][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector [7]. Core Insights - New photovoltaic installations have declined, indicating a potential slowdown in growth. In the first two months of 2026, new installed capacity was 65.91 million kilowatts, with photovoltaic installations down by 712 thousand kilowatts year-on-year [7]. - Natural gas prices remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting global LNG supply. The report notes that the recent attack on Qatar's LNG facility has reduced its export capacity by approximately 17% [7]. - The utility sector is expected to benefit from a revaluation of physical assets amid international order restructuring, with the utility index outperforming major indices [7]. - The report suggests that the coal power sector is transitioning from a base-load to a flexible power source, with an expected increase in dividend capacity and willingness in 2026 [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Supply - Electricity demand is on the rise, with thermal power generation seeing significant growth due to the "14th Five-Year Plan" coal power approval [7]. - The report highlights that coal prices are experiencing a temporary increase, but future price hikes may be constrained by domestic supply stability [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in the utility sector, particularly in companies like Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Guodian Power, which are expected to benefit from market reforms and increased demand for renewable energy [7]. - It also identifies potential in natural gas upstream assets due to expected price increases [7]. Market Performance - The utility sector index rose by 2.5% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.9 percentage points [52]. - The report notes that coal power had the highest weekly increase among utility sub-sectors, with a 4.8% rise [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 4.60 CNY and a reasonable value of 5.14 CNY for A-shares, and 3.67 HKD with a reasonable value of 4.10 HKD for H-shares [7]. Core Views - The company's profit is under pressure due to declining electricity prices, leading to a projected 10% drop in annual performance. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 75.697 billion CNY (adjusted YoY -4.11%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.765 billion CNY (adjusted YoY -9.9%) [7]. - The company's controllable on-grid electricity volume increased by 2.51% YoY, but revenue from nuclear power decreased by 6.33% due to an 8.8% drop in market electricity prices. The cost of nuclear power increased by 3.8% YoY, with operational costs rising by 7.5% [7]. - The company completed acquisitions, including the Huizhou Nuclear Power project, and expects stable profit growth from the commissioning of new units from 2026 to 2030, with a total of 31.84 GW in operation and 24.22 GW under construction or approved [7]. - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion CNY in 2026, 11.5 billion CNY in 2027, and 12.5 billion CNY in 2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.4, 20.3, and 18.5 [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected operating revenue for 2024A is 86.804 billion CNY, decreasing to 75.697 billion CNY in 2025A, with a projected recovery to 81.842 billion CNY in 2026E [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 10.814 billion CNY in 2024A, decreasing to 9.765 billion CNY in 2025A, and recovering to 10.379 billion CNY in 2026E [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to be 0.21 CNY in 2024A, dropping to 0.19 CNY in 2025A, and then rising to 0.21 CNY in 2026E [2]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to decline from 9.1% in 2024A to 7.9% in 2025A, with a gradual recovery to 8.8% by 2028E [2]. - **Debt Ratios**: The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to increase from 59.5% in 2024A to 66.1% in 2028E, indicating a rising leverage trend [2].

Summary of China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) - **Industry**: Nuclear Power Key Points Installed Capacity and Performance - By the end of 2025, CGN's operational and under-construction nuclear power capacity will reach 56.06 GW, a 58.6% increase from 2020 [2][3] - The average capacity factor of the 28 operational units is approximately 93%, achieving zero unplanned outages [2][4] Financial Performance - In 2025, CGN's revenue is projected to be approximately 75.697 billion RMB, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 9.765 billion RMB, impacted by a decline in market electricity prices [2][9] - The average debt financing cost decreased to 2.5%, down 53 basis points year-on-year [2][10] - The operating cash flow for 2025 is expected to be 94.034 billion RMB, a 4% decrease, while net cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 29.071 billion RMB, down 20.1% [9][10] Market Dynamics - The proportion of market-based electricity sales is expected to rise to 56.2% in 2025, with an average tax-inclusive electricity price of approximately 0.3531 RMB/kWh, a decrease of about 0.034 RMB/kWh [2][4] - The company plans to actively expand its market share by securing more electricity quotas through market strategies [4][6] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for 2025 is projected at 37.548 billion RMB, with an upward trend expected as construction peaks [2][11] - The dividend payout ratio for 2025 is approximately 44.47%, with a proposed dividend of 0.086 RMB per share, maintaining a stable and predictable dividend policy [2][4] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The national plan aims to double nuclear power capacity to 110 GW by 2030, with CGN expected to secure approvals for at least 4 new units annually [2][3] - The company is focusing on technological innovation, including the HPR1,000 reactor design and the development of fourth-generation lead-cooled fast reactors [2][5][19] Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Practices - In 2025, CGN's electricity generation is estimated to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 2.15 million tons [6][7] - The company emphasizes talent development and community engagement, integrating ESG principles into its strategic planning [6][7] Nuclear Fuel and Supply Stability - Despite rising uranium prices, CGN has sufficient uranium reserves and is implementing measures to ensure long-term supply stability, including expanding mining operations and utilizing market mechanisms [15][20] Regulatory and Policy Environment - The company is actively engaging in policy advocacy to recognize nuclear energy as a green energy source, which is crucial for market positioning and compliance with environmental standards [16][17] Future Challenges and Strategies - CGN anticipates challenges in financing due to the increasing capital expenditure required for new projects, but plans to leverage market conditions for favorable financing options [17][18] - The company is exploring diverse applications of nuclear energy, including heating and desalination, to enhance revenue streams [18][19] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting CGN's operational performance, financial metrics, market strategies, and future outlook within the nuclear power industry.