温氏股份：利润持续增厚，分红与股东共享盈利“蛋糕”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a projected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 75.419 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.408 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 241% [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 28.662 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.081 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering year-on-year increase of 3097% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 98% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Segment - In Q3 2024, the company sold 7.19 million pigs, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 19.48 yuan/kg, up 19% quarter-on-quarter. The estimated total profit for the swine segment is around 4.6 billion yuan, with an average profit of over 600 yuan per pig [2]. - From Q1 to Q3 2024, the total sales volume was 21.56 million pigs, an 18% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 16.70 yuan/kg, an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. 2. Poultry Segment - In Q3 2024, the company sold 320 million chickens, a 5% increase year-on-year, with an average price of 13.14 yuan/kg, down 3% quarter-on-quarter. The estimated profit for the poultry segment is around 700 million yuan, with an average profit of 2.2 to 2.3 yuan per chicken [3]. - From Q1 to Q3 2024, the total sales volume was 870 million chickens, roughly flat compared to the same period last year, with an average price of 13.24 yuan/kg, down 3% year-on-year [3]. 3. Future Outlook - For the swine segment, both quantity and quality are expected to increase, with a projected rise in breeding stock by the end of September [4]. - The poultry segment is also expected to see continued growth in sales volume and cost improvements, with a planned increase in chicken output by 5% to 10% [4]. - The company's debt ratio has improved, decreasing to approximately 54.9% by the end of Q3, down 4.1 percentage points from the end of Q2 [4]. 4. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts a significant recovery in net profit, projecting 12.436 billion yuan for 2024, with corresponding EPS of 1.87 yuan per share [5]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 is 109.399 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 21.66% [5].