Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-24 13:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous good performance in revenue and sales, with a significant improvement in gross profit margin and expansion of gross profit per unit [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy support that boosts consumer recovery, leading to valuation recovery [3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.887 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 808 million yuan, up 25.35% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported revenue of 1.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.89%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 10.60% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s beer sales reached 480,000 tons in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with revenue per ton at 3,932 yuan, up 2.0% year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is maintained at 0.36, 0.41, and 0.45 yuan respectively, with a target price raised to 11.20 yuan based on a 27X PE for 2025 [3][4]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s operating cost per ton in Q3 2024 was 1,975 yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, contributing to a gross profit margin increase of 4.0 percentage points to 49.8% [3]. - The gross profit per unit has expanded by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 16.1% in Q3 2024, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Position - The company maintains a relative advantage in the market, particularly with its premium beer products benefiting from a high proportion of on-premise consumption channels [3].