科德教育24Q3点评：陕西新高考或影响业绩增速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the implementation of the new college entrance examination in Shaanxi may impact the company's revenue growth [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 580 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year [1] - The report suggests that the revenue growth in Q3 2024 slowed to 2.0% compared to H1, primarily due to factors such as the new college entrance examination affecting repeat enrollment intentions and increased competition in Tianjin [2] Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and a net profit of 43.43 million yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin slightly decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 39.6%, while the expense ratio improved with a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios [1] - The net profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 20.6% in Q3 2024 [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 159 million, 194 million, and 228 million yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to valuations of 30x, 25x, and 21x [2] - The report highlights that Q4 is expected to be a peak season for delivery and revenue recognition for the company, potentially contributing significant investment returns [2] Key Financial Metrics - The total revenue for 2022 was 795 million yuan, with a decline of 7.34% year-on-year, while the forecast for 2024 is 848 million yuan, representing a growth rate of 9.92% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 139 million yuan, reflecting an 83.6% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in subsequent years [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 33.26% in 2023 to 34.02% in 2024 [3]