确成股份：Q3产销量及收入创新高，业绩保持稳健

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company achieved record high production and sales volumes in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 563 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.69% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.65% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.81% [1] - The increase in sales volume is attributed to the gradual release of production capacity and proactive market expansion, with Q3 production at 92,700 tons, up 15.08% year-on-year and 2.12% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average price of silica products increased by 5.19% year-on-year and 0.92% quarter-on-quarter, while the overall raw material prices decreased by 6.39% year-on-year and 3.73% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The decline in net profit quarter-on-quarter was mainly due to increased financial expenses, which rose by 27.85 million yuan, primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The company’s core silica business remains stable, with effective management of administrative, sales, and R&D expenses [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 2.197 billion yuan in 2024, 2.367 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.527 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.3%, 7.7%, and 6.8% respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 510 million yuan in 2024, 572 million yuan in 2025, and 639 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 12.2%, and 11.7% respectively [2] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.23 yuan in 2024, 1.38 yuan in 2025, and 1.54 yuan in 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a 2024 PE of 14.67x [1][2] Industry Outlook - The demand for silica is expected to improve due to strong tire production and the increasing penetration of electric vehicles, with the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate at 75.50%, the highest since 2015 [1] - In Q3 2024, domestic electric vehicle sales reached 3.38 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.36% [1] - High-dispersion silica, used in green tires, is anticipated to benefit significantly from the high demand in the electric vehicle market [1]