COSMOS(SZ:300856) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-24 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 514 million yuan, a decrease of 4.11% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, revenue fell to 453 million yuan, down 22.46% year-on-year, and net profit dropped to 93 million yuan, down 50.09% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory destocking by downstream customers and intensified competition [2]. - Despite short-term challenges in the sunscreen market, long-term demand for sunscreen products continues to grow, particularly for new types of sunscreen agents [2]. - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 13 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to price reductions on certain products [2]. - New production lines are being successfully launched, including a 10,000-ton sunscreen product project in Malaysia expected to be operational by the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates gradual recovery in revenue and gross margin over the next 2-3 years as new projects come online and market conditions improve [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 are set at 2.507 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5%, while net profit is expected to be 674 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company's earnings per share for 2024 is projected at 1.99 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 [3][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 45.15%, down from 48.83% in 2023 [5].