国电电力：24Q3主业盈利持续增长，火电电量明显恢复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guodian Power (国电电力) is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Guodian Power's main business profitability continues to grow, with a significant recovery in thermal power generation [1]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.191 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.41% [1]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong position in the energy sector, backed by its shareholder structure and asset quality, which positions it favorably for future growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Guodian Power reported total operating revenue of 133.862 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.79% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.475 billion yuan, down 6.47% year-on-year but up 19.27% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters of 2024 was 428.17 yuan per megawatt-hour, an increase of 2.31% year-on-year [1]. Generation Capacity and Growth - As of September 30, 2024, the total installed capacity of Guodian Power was 108.0633 million kilowatts, with thermal power accounting for 71.969 million kilowatts [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its renewable energy capacity, with expectations of significant growth in wind and solar power installations [1][2]. - The report notes that Guodian Power's thermal power projects have maintained steady growth, with new installations expected to contribute to revenue increases in the coming years [1][2]. Profitability Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for Guodian Power at 9.204 billion yuan for 2024, 9.096 billion yuan for 2025, and 9.997 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 64.1%, -1.2%, and 9.9% respectively [2]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.15, 10.28, and 9.35 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [2].