HMD(002947) 华创证券·2024-10-24 16:08Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, driven by dual growth engines: large customer die-cutting and Huayangtong's server business [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 1.699 billion (YoY +41.05%), with a gross margin of 32.79% (YoY +2.38pct) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 311 million (YoY +59.30%), and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 304 million (YoY +67.49%) [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 758 million (YoY +40.83%, QoQ +46.75%), with a gross margin of 36.33% (YoY +1.92pct, QoQ +5.18pct) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 was RMB 147 million (YoY +46.30%, QoQ +57.26%), and non-GAAP net profit was RMB 143 million (YoY +50.90%, QoQ +54.70%) [1] Business Highlights - The die-cutting business has entered a harvest period after over a decade of development, with the company becoming a core supplier for Apple and other international clients [2] - The company's consumer electronics business generated revenue of RMB 744 million in H1 2024 (YoY +38.45%), with non-GAAP net profit growing for 13 consecutive quarters since Q3 2021 [2] - Huayangtong's server business is benefiting from the AI trend, with the company expanding into charging piles and energy storage, solidifying its position as a platform supplier [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 500 million, RMB 800 million, and RMB 1.03 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1.818 billion in 2023 to RMB 7.452 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 61.2% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 281 million in 2023 to RMB 1.031 billion in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.10 in 2023 to RMB 4.03 in 2026 [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 35x in 2023 to 10x in 2026, reflecting strong growth prospects [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at RMB 62.4, based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's higher growth potential compared to peers [2] - The current price is RMB 38.47, indicating significant upside potential [3]