常宝股份：季度利润下滑，结构转型升级加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in quarterly profits, with a significant drop in net profit and sales net profit margin. The main reason for the performance decline is attributed to the reduced profitability of oil casing products [1]. - The company is actively pursuing structural transformation and upgrading, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity and enhancing product quality. The target for sales volume in 2024 is set at 900,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1]. - The demand in the downstream market is expected to improve, with stable growth anticipated in the domestic oil well pipe market and increased investment in thermal power construction, which is likely to boost the boiler pipe market [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 411 million yuan, down 33.82% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 85 million yuan, a decline of 50.18% year-on-year and 46.64% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross profit margin for oil casing products decreased to 15.2% in the first half of 2024, down 5.98 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Project Development - The company is advancing new projects, including an investment of 8500 tons in new energy and semiconductor special materials, aimed at increasing the proportion of high value-added and high-tech products [1]. - The company’s subsidiary plans to invest in a 50,000-ton precision tube project for electric vehicles, with significant progress reported in ongoing projects [1]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable domestic oil well pipe market in 2024, with potential growth in unconventional oil and gas resource development [1]. - Investment in thermal power construction has increased by 25.3% year-on-year, which is expected to positively impact the demand for boiler pipes [1]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 610 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 760 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 6.6, and 6.0 times [2][3].