Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The market performance for the steel sector showed a 0.20% increase, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products experiencing slight declines [2][10] - Supply conditions indicate a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.6%, with an increase of 1.10 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - Demand for the five major steel products rose to 888.0 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 19.49 million tons, or 2.24% [2][34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 23.33 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 1.65% [2][40] - The average price index for common steel increased to 3450.8 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week rise of 2.86 CNY/ton [2][47] Supply Summary - As of March 27, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 2.94 million tons [2][25] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces reached 58.9%, up by 2.30 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The total production of the five major steel products was 743.9 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.21 million tons week-on-week [2][25] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 888.0 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 19.49 million tons [2][34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 95,000 tons, reflecting a minor increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [2][34] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 208.8 million square meters, up by 39.2 million square meters week-on-week [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products stood at 1387.7 million tons, down by 23.33 million tons week-on-week [2][40] - Factory inventory for the five major steel products was 510.2 million tons, a decrease of 25.06 million tons week-on-week [2][40] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for common steel was 3450.8 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 3.14% [2][47] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 55 CNY/ton, down by 4.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54] - The average cost of pig iron was 2369 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 11.0 CNY/ton [2][54] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 CNY/ton [2][70] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1720 CNY/ton, up by 120.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke remained stable at 1715 CNY/ton [2][70] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential growth [2][71]

旺季供需改善，成本扰动与情绪回暖并存 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 29 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ➢ 本周市场表现：本周钢铁板块上涨 0.20%，表现优于大盘；其中，特 钢板块下跌 0.53%，长材板块下跌 0.24%，板材板块下跌 1.02%；铁 矿石板块上涨 7.48%，钢铁耗材板块下跌 0.31%，贸易流通板块上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several companies within the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to prolong, leading to a strong price trend in the steel market. The raw material prices are likely to fluctuate due to the conflict, with potential supply constraints affecting mining operations [9][31]. - Steel production remains stable, with a notable decrease in total inventory, indicating a healthy demand-supply balance. The report anticipates that carbon reduction requirements will impose constraints on steel supply, which may lead to a recovery in steel company profits [9][31]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 27, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar is 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products show mixed price movements, with cold-rolled steel increasing by 10 CNY/ton to 3710 CNY/ton [14][15]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices are at 1120 USD/ton, down 2 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices are relatively stable with slight increases in some categories [26][28]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices remain stable, while imported iron ore prices have seen slight declines. The report notes a decrease in scrap steel prices to 2150 CNY/ton [31][36]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies, with several firms such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel receiving "Buy" recommendations based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][9].

钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 钢铁周报：库存去化明显，钢价回升可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注先进钢铁材料占比持续提升、产品结构不断优化的南钢股份(600282，买 入)，特钢出口龙头企业中信特钢(000708，买入)；在国际地缘政治动荡，能源安全 重要性愈发提升趋势下，建议关注受益于核电景气周期、专注高端特钢管材制造、 供应核聚变装置关键部件的久立特材(002318，买入)，在海外缺电趋势下燃气轮机 余热锅炉管制造龙头的常宝股份(002478，买入)；其他标的：包钢股份(600010，未 评级)。 风险提示 宏观经济发生较大波动风险；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性风险；原料价格波动风险 国家/地区 中国 行业 钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 28 日 看好（维持） 于嘉懿 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating an improvement in supply and demand during the peak season, leading to a slight recovery in industry profitability [2][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with pig iron production rising above 2.3 million tons and consumption of the five major steel products reaching 8.8797 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 194,900 tons. This improvement in supply and demand has led to a rebound in steel prices and a slight expansion in corporate profitability. However, the overall demand recovery remains slow, resulting in inventory levels still under pressure compared to the same period last year, leading to cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the upstream raw material-related stocks have performed relatively stable, while the prices of major steel products have shown slight fluctuations. The steel industry is currently in a phase of stable supply and demand, with a potential for recovery in industry prosperity as policies on both supply and demand sides are implemented [4][5]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - As of March 27, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.3958 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.24 million tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3109 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 29,400 tons. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 86.63%, and the operating rate was 81.03% [10][21]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.8797 million tons, with week-on-week increases in rebar (+172,800 tons), wire rod (+73,000 tons), and hot-rolled products (+31,200 tons). However, cold-rolled and medium-thick plates saw decreases of 34,000 tons and 48,100 tons, respectively [10][21]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory was 18.9784 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 483,900 tons. Social inventory accounted for 13.8769 million tons, down 23.33% week-on-week, while steel mill inventory was 5.1015 million tons, down 25.06% week-on-week [10][21]. Profitability - As of March 27, the profitability of various steel products was as follows: high furnace rebar (55 CNY/ton), building steel (electric furnace, -91 CNY/ton), hot-rolled sheets (16 CNY/ton), and cold-rolled sheets (-139 CNY/ton). Approximately 43.29% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable [10][21].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The gas turbine sector remains a core area of focus due to ongoing electricity shortages, with a strong outlook for the future [1] - Recent declines in the gas turbine sector are attributed to market fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts and perceptions of rising European natural gas prices negatively impacting the sector [1] - However, North American natural gas prices remain stable and independent, and demand for gas turbines driven by rapid AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) construction has not diminished [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The narrative of gas turbine shortages has not changed; it continues to be a central theme in addressing electricity shortages [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations in global natural gas prices, these do not affect the long-term energy transition and related downstream demand in certain regions [1] - With the rapid growth of AI demand in North America and stable demand increases in other regions, it is projected that the global gas turbine shortfall will reach 30 GW by 2028 [1] - The tightening of the supply chain is expected to lead to price increases and a growing trend in demand for gas engines [1] Investment Recommendations - Strong recommendations for the following areas: 1. **Complete Units**: Focus on small gas turbines and medium-speed engines, with a particular emphasis on China Power, which is considered to have the lowest valuation in the sector and stable core business [2] 2. **Component Sector**: Key blade components with ongoing integration into overseas core downstream markets, including companies like Yingliu and Wanzhou, and low-valuation HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) segments with strong potential for price increases [2] 3. **Structural Components**: Companies such as Linde and Haomai Technology are highlighted for their potential [2] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the market indicates a strong belief in the resilience of the gas turbine sector despite external pressures [1] - The anticipated growth in AI-related infrastructure is expected to significantly drive demand for gas turbines in the coming years [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to see a turning point in profitability as seasonal inventory reduction becomes evident. Geopolitical tensions and rising raw material prices are providing short-term support for steel prices. The domestic crude steel production for January-February 2026 was 160.335 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while total steel production was 221.19 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. The report anticipates a continued reduction in steel production capacity starting in 2026, driven by policies aimed at balancing supply and demand in key industries [2][11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Analysis: Seasonal Inventory Reduction and Profitability Turning Point - The geopolitical situation has caused market fluctuations, with rising raw material prices providing support for steel prices. The report highlights a trend of reduced steel production capacity starting in 2026, focusing on low-carbon and environmentally friendly practices [11] 2. Supply: Downstream Recovery and Increased Steel Production - Average daily pig iron production reached 2.2815 million tons, up 3.14% week-on-week. Rebar production was 2.03 million tons, up 4.11% week-on-week. The report indicates a significant increase in production capacity utilization rates for both long and short process rebar production [14][17] 3. Inventory: Downstream Demand Recovery and Slight Inventory Reduction - Total inventory decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with social and steel mill inventories both showing a downward trend. The report notes that the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 8.82% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in demand [20][22] 4. Demand: Entering Traditional Peak Season with Notable Demand Increase - The apparent consumption of steel products rose to 8.68 million tons, with rebar consumption increasing by 17.69% week-on-week. The report emphasizes the recovery in demand as the industry enters its traditional peak season [22][23] 5. Cost and Profitability: Rising Steel Costs Slightly Squeeze Profits - The average pig iron cost was 2,299 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week. The profitability rate for steel companies was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week-on-week. The report indicates that while costs are rising, the potential for lower raw material prices exists due to high inventory levels [34][37] 6. Steel Prices: Effective Cost Support and Positive Demand Outlook - The report notes a slight increase of 0.07% in the general steel price index, with expectations for continued price increases supported by demand recovery and cost factors [43][44] 7. Sector Performance: Decline Due to Geopolitical Tensions - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% during the week, while the steel sector index dropped by 10.29%. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on market performance [47][49]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the peak season inventory reduction is becoming evident, and a profit turning point is expected. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, have led to increased raw material prices, which are expected to support steel prices in the short term. The domestic crude steel production for January-February 2026 was 160.335 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while steel product output was 221.19 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. The report anticipates a continued reduction in steel industry supply starting in 2026, driven by policies aimed at optimizing supply structures towards low-carbon and environmentally friendly practices [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Peak Season Inventory Reduction and Profit Turning Point - The geopolitical situation has caused market fluctuations, with raw material prices rising, providing support for steel prices. The report expects a trend of reduced supply in the steel industry starting in 2026, promoting high-quality development [11]. 2. Supply: Downstream Recovery and Increased Steel Production - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, up 3.14% week-on-week, and rebar production was 2.03 million tons, up 4.11% week-on-week. The report notes a significant increase in production and capacity utilization rates for both long and short process rebar [14][17]. 3. Inventory: Downstream Demand Recovery and Slight Inventory Reduction - Total inventory decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with social and steel mill inventories both showing a downward trend. The report highlights a recovery in downstream demand, with a total apparent consumption of steel products reaching 8.68 million tons, an increase of 8.82% week-on-week [20][22]. 4. Demand: Entering Traditional Peak Season with Notable Demand Increase - The apparent consumption of steel products has increased significantly, with rebar consumption rising by 17.69% week-on-week. The report indicates that the demand is expected to continue improving as the industry enters its traditional peak season [22][23]. 5. Cost and Profitability: Rising Steel Costs Slightly Squeeze Profits - The average pig iron cost was 2299 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week. The profitability rate for steel companies was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week-on-week. The report notes that while costs are rising, the high inventory levels of iron ore may provide downward pressure on prices [34][37]. 6. Steel Prices: Effective Cost Support and Positive Demand Outlook - The report states that the steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.07%, with expectations for continued price support due to rising costs and improving demand conditions [43][44]. 7. Sector Performance: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% during the week, while the steel sector index dropped by 10.29%. The report highlights the negative impact of geopolitical tensions on market performance [47][49].

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an investment rating of "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a decline of 10.03% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down 9.18% and iron ore down 10.96% [10][12] - Supply conditions show an increase in high furnace capacity utilization to 85.5%, while electric furnace utilization rose to 56.6% [24] - Demand for the five major steel products increased to 868.5 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 8.82% [34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 12.26 million tons week-on-week, while factory inventory fell by 16.40 million tons [41] - The average price index for common steel is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase, while special steel is at 6622.7 yuan/ton [47] - Profit margins for rebar steel decreased to 59 yuan/ton, while electric furnace profit margins for construction steel fell to -86 yuan/ton [55] Supply Summary - As of March 20, the average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.95% [24] - The total production of the five major steel products reached 744.1 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 2.41% [24] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products reached 868.5 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70.40 million tons [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, showing a slight decline [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products stood at 14.11 million tons, down 0.86% week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 5.352 million tons, also down 2.97% week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index increased by 2.56 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel price index rose by 5.93 yuan/ton [47] - The profit for rebar steel decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the electric furnace profit for construction steel decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton [55] Raw Material Prices Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 yuan/ton [73] - The price for coking coal at the port was 1600 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.0 yuan/ton [73] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential growth [74]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a decline of 10.03% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as special steel down 9.18% and iron ore down 10.96% [10][12] - Supply conditions show an increase in high furnace capacity utilization to 85.5%, while electric furnace utilization rose to 56.6% [24] - Demand for the five major steel products increased to 868.5 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 8.82% [34] - Social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 0.86% week-on-week, while factory inventory fell by 2.97% [41] - The average price index for common steel is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase [47] - The report anticipates a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, supported by cost factors and low valuations in the steel sector [3] Supply Summary - As of March 20, the average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.95% [24] - High furnace capacity utilization increased by 2.61 percentage points to 85.5% [24] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rose by 6.13 percentage points to 56.6% [24] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 7.441 million tons, up 2.41% week-on-week [24] Demand Summary - Consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.685 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8.82% [34] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, showing a slight decline of 3.17% [34] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 1.696 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week rise [34] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products was 14.11 million tons, down 0.86% week-on-week [41] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 5.352 million tons, down 2.97% week-on-week [41] Price & Profit Summary - The common steel price index is 3448.0 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.78% [47] - The special steel price index is 6622.7 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.30% [47] - The profit for rebar production was 59 yuan/ton, down 7.81% week-on-week [55] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -86 yuan/ton, down 10.26% week-on-week [55] Raw Material Summary - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 776 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.0 yuan [73] - The price of coking coal at the port was 1600 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan week-on-week [73] - The price of first-grade metallurgical coke remained stable at 1715 yuan/ton [73] Company Valuation Summary - Key companies in the steel sector include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Shougang, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios indicating potential for growth [74]