COSMOS(SZ:300856) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-25 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by downstream inventory destocking and price adjustments, leading to a wait-and-see approach for new product ramp-up to sustain growth [1][2] - Despite short-term demand fluctuations, the long-term growth logic driven by new capacity and product categories remains unchanged [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 50.1% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 514 million yuan, a decrease of 4.11% year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow net amount was 770 million yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year, with a cash dividend rate of 39.62% [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 45.3%, down 4.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 27.7%, down 2.56 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 37.4%, down 12.73 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 20.4%, down 11.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 660 million, 660 million, and 790 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.2%, 0%, and +19.6% [2] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.94, 1.94, and 2.32 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.5, 14.5, and 12.1 times [2][5] Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories, with new products such as anti-dandruff agents still in the ramp-up phase, and a robust pipeline of new products including amino acid surfactants and moisturizing agents [4] - The company possesses a stable supply chain and a diversified product system, providing a competitive advantage in a challenging regulatory environment [4]