ZJJH(600160) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-25 03:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][12][13] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 68% in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 65% increase in the third quarter, despite a sequential decline of 19% [1][4] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 179.06 billion yuan, representing an 11.83% year-on-year growth [1][4] - The company is benefiting from rising refrigerant prices, with the average price of refrigerants increasing by 45% year-on-year in the third quarter [1][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the refrigerant market, with expectations of sustained high demand due to the end of the traditional off-season and the start of a new cooling year [1][11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 7.76%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] - The third quarter saw revenues of 58.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, but the net profit was 4.23 billion yuan, up 64.76% year-on-year [1][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 16.95%, reflecting an improvement of 4.08 percentage points year-on-year [1][4] Market Trends - The refrigerant market is experiencing a price increase, with R22 and R32 prices rising significantly due to strong demand from household air conditioning and supply constraints [1][6] - The company’s refrigerant production and sales volumes for the third quarter were 14.11 million tons and 8.50 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 22% and 10% [1][6] - The company is expanding its product offerings to include fourth-generation refrigerants and high-value fluorinated products, enhancing its competitive position in the market [2][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 252.53 billion yuan, 325.06 billion yuan, and 414.82 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][12] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 17.38 billion yuan, 21.98 billion yuan, and 27.34 billion yuan, indicating robust growth potential [2][12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for refrigerants driven by the recovery in the air conditioning and automotive sectors [1][11]