Wuzhou Special Paper(605007) 光大证券·2024-10-25 03:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 330 million yuan, up 205.9% year-on-year [1] - The new production capacity launched in August 2024, including a 350,000-ton corrugated paper capacity in Hubei, is driving rapid revenue growth. Continuous capacity release is expected to further enhance revenue [1] - The integrated pulp and paper project is progressing steadily, with a long-term goal of producing 800,000 tons of pulp and paper, which is anticipated to significantly enhance profitability and market share by 2025 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, with a net profit of 94.59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11.6%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, although Q3 saw a slight decline in gross margin to 10.7% [1] - The company’s operating expenses ratio for the first three quarters was 4.7%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 8.21 billion yuan, 11.59 billion yuan, and 13.59 billion yuan, with growth rates of 25.79%, 41.26%, and 17.29% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to 435 million yuan, 577 million yuan, and 724 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.55%, 32.57%, and 25.50% respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12, 9, and 7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company expands its market share [2][3] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 2.0 in 2024 to 1.4 by 2026, reflecting improved asset efficiency [2][3]