立中集团:2024年三季报点评:3Q营收续创新高,业绩短期承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.3 CNY, compared to the current price of 18.59 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 19.4 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 493 million CNY, up 19% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.9 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 10% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5% [1]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to both volume and aluminum prices, while the gross margin was impacted by initial depreciation pressures from new capacity in Mexico and fluctuations in aluminum prices [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 23.365 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 9.3% for 2023, 7.4% for 2024, 10.7% for 2025, and 14.7% for 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 606 million CNY for 2023, with growth rates of 23.0% for 2023, 7.8% for 2024, 16.1% for 2025, and 17.8% for 2026 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.96 CNY for 2023, increasing to 1.03 CNY in 2024, 1.20 CNY in 2025, and 1.41 CNY in 2026 [2]. Production and Market Position - The company has successfully launched its heat-free materials in the market, with significant partnerships and certifications from leading new energy vehicle manufacturers [1]. - The production capacity ramp-up in Mexico is expected to influence gross margins, with ongoing pressures from currency fluctuations and market conditions [1].