Jiahe Foods(SH:605300) Soochow Securities·2024-10-25 06:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 were reported at 168 million and 8.3 million respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 19.5% and 59.9% [2] - The main business is under pressure due to weak demand, while the coffee business shows stable double-digit growth [2] - The company is focusing on stabilizing existing customers for its main product and expanding overseas and industrial customer orders to mitigate the impact of client self-built capacities [3] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million) for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at 2428, 2841, 2365, 2741, and 3256 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.17%, 17.04%, -16.75%, 15.90%, and 18.77% [1][3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million) for the same years is forecasted at 115.38, 257.75, 121.04, 178.82, and 241.70, with year-on-year changes of -23.45%, 123.39%, -53.04%, 47.73%, and 35.17% [1][3] - The latest diluted EPS (in yuan/share) is expected to be 0.29, 0.64, 0.30, 0.45, and 0.60 for the respective years [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from various products was 248 million for plant-based creamers, 79 million for coffee, 22 million for plant-based products, and 164 million for other products, with year-on-year changes of 51%, 13%, -22%, and +65% respectively [2] - Revenue from different channels in Q3 2024 was 167 million from production enterprises, 240 million from chains, and 63 million from distributors, with year-on-year changes of -12.2%, -41.4%, and -9.2% respectively [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 15.02%, down by 3.90 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and an increase in low-margin product sales [2] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 7.11 percentage points to 2.18% due to rising costs and increased sales expenses [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in its main business in the medium to long term, driven by stabilizing existing customer demand and expanding into new markets [3] - The coffee business is still in its cultivation phase, with expectations for growth momentum to be further released as brand awareness increases [3]