巴比食品：2024Q3业绩点评：门店业务持续承压，团餐渠道收入改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan, up 25.68% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 447 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.46% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 83 million yuan, reflecting a 14.00% increase year-on-year [2] - The store business continues to face pressure, with a slowdown in new store openings, while the group meal channel revenue shows improvement [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024E, the company is expected to generate total revenue of 1.682 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.15% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is projected to be 241.63 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.06% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024E is estimated at 0.97 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 16.08 [1] Business Segment Analysis - The franchise sales, direct store sales, and group meal channel sales for Q3 2024 were 340 million yuan, 4 million yuan, and 970 million yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +2.1%, -34.4%, and +9.2% [2] - As of the end of Q3 2024, the number of franchise stores reached 5,286, with a net increase of 2 stores from the end of Q2, including 231 new openings and 229 closures [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 18.55%, an increase of 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the non-GAAP net profit margin was 13.17%, up 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 26.79%, a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising pork costs [2]