苏泊尔2024Q3点评：外销基数抬升，整体平稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 results with revenue of 5.548 billion yuan (up 3.03% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.492 billion yuan (up 2.22%) [1] - For the first three quarters, revenue reached 16.512 billion yuan (up 7.45% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.433 billion yuan (up 5.19%) [1] - The report indicates that the decline in growth rate is primarily due to the rising base of external sales [1] - The company has revised its 2024 related transaction guidance from 6.2 billion yuan to 6.95 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach [1] Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales are expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, while external sales are projected to grow at a low double-digit rate, reflecting a slowdown compared to Q2 2024 [1] - The company’s performance in domestic sales is expected to outperform peers despite industry challenges [1] Profit Analysis - Q3 gross margin was 24.62%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.24 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.76 percentage points [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 was 8.87%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.44 percentage points [1] - The report highlights the company's effective marketing and cost control measures, which have contributed to stable profitability [1] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 22.820 billion yuan in 2024, 24.280 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.567 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.1%, 6.4%, and 5.3% respectively [2][4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.319 billion yuan in 2024, 2.483 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.610 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 6.4%, 7.1%, and 5.1% [2][4] Financial Ratios - The projected gross margin for 2024 is 26.1%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 37.1% [2][4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 19.50 in 2024 to 16.81 in 2026 [2][4]