歌尔股份：3Q24 recovery on track; Poised to benefit from XR/TWS/gaming product launches in 2H24/FY25E

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Goertek with a new target price (TP) of RMB27.39, reflecting a 16.1% upside from the current price of RMB23.60 [3][9]. Core Insights - Goertek's 3Q24 revenue and net profit increased by 2% and 138% year-over-year (YoY), respectively, surpassing market expectations due to improved efficiency and cost control [1][4]. - The company is expected to continue its profitability recovery into 4Q24 and FY25E, driven by strong demand for AR/VR and gaming products, including launches from major players like Meta and Sony [1][9]. - Earnings estimates for FY24-26E have been raised by 0-6% to account for better operating leverage and expense control [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: FY24E revenue is projected at RMB103,204 million, with a YoY growth of 4.7%. For FY25E, revenue is expected to reach RMB116,686 million, reflecting a 13.1% growth [2][12]. - Net Profit: FY24E net profit is estimated at RMB2,868 million, showing a significant YoY increase of 163.6%. For FY25E, net profit is projected at RMB3,725 million, a 29.9% growth [2][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The reported EPS for FY24E is RMB0.84, with a substantial increase of 163.6% YoY. For FY25E, EPS is expected to be RMB1.10, a 29.9% increase [2][5]. Margin Analysis - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): The GPM for 3Q24 improved to 11.4%, up 1.2 percentage points YoY, attributed to better efficiency and scale effects [1][4]. - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): The OPM for FY24E is projected at 3.1%, increasing to 3.6% in FY25E [5][6]. Market Position and Outlook - Goertek is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming product cycles in the XR and gaming segments, with expected net profit growth of 164% and 30% YoY for FY24 and FY25, respectively [1][9]. - The company’s leadership in the XR/acoustics/gaming segments is anticipated to drive market share gains as the industry recovers [9][10].