北新建材：Q3业绩符合预期，延续高质量发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 20.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.15 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year [1] - The gypsum board business remains stable, while the waterproof and coating segments continue to show high growth, indicating resilience in a challenging market [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26.62 billion yuan, 28.72 billion yuan, and 30.90 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 20.36 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.4% and 14.1% respectively [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.7%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.7%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 2.71 billion yuan, an increase of 38.0% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [1] Segment Performance - The lightweight building materials segment generated revenue of 14.24 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [1] - The waterproof segment achieved revenue of 3.58 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year, showcasing its ability to expand despite industry challenges [1] - The coatings segment reported revenue of 2.55 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 31.2%, reflecting a significant improvement of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face challenges due to declining real estate demand and intense industry competition, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.30 yuan, 2.45 yuan, and 2.59 yuan respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [2][10]