HLGF(SH:600346) Xinda Securities·2024-10-25 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, consistent with the previous rating [1][2]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 177.857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.105 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.45% [1]. - The report highlights that the decline in profitability is primarily due to the narrowing of chemical product margins, influenced by fluctuating oil prices and a weak supply-demand balance in the market [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will grow at rates of 2.3%, 13.7%, and 26.8%, respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.00, 1.14, and 1.45 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the third quarter of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 65.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.46% [1]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2024 was $81.6 per barrel, remaining stable compared to the previous year [1]. - The report indicates that the company's gross profit margins for key refining products have varied, with gasoline and diesel showing increases, while other products like polyethylene and polypropylene have seen significant declines [1]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the refining capacity growth is expected to peak, with the company positioned to benefit from its low-cost structure and high-end product offerings as the industry enters a phase of stock competition [1]. - The report notes that by 2025, domestic crude oil processing capacity is expected to be capped at 1 billion tons, with large-scale refining enterprises accounting for about 55% of this capacity [1]. - The company is actively expanding its high-performance resin and new materials projects, which are expected to enhance its profitability and reduce reliance on bulk chemical products [1].