HQTI(SH:688281) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-25 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its strong product barriers and growth potential [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 738 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 309 million yuan, up 14.4% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The company is gradually becoming a core supplier in China's aerospace industry, focusing on stealth materials and advanced new materials, with significant growth potential in aerospace component processing and related businesses [1]. - The company is experiencing a steady increase in production and sales, with a notable rise in orders for new products and batch production models [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 54.6%, down 4.2 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 39.6%, down 4.4 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow turned positive, reaching 157 million yuan, compared to a negative 73 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to increased collections [1]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 917 million yuan in 2023 to 1.185 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.1% [2][4]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 502 million yuan in 2024, 679 million yuan in 2025, and 894 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 49.8%, 35.2%, and 31.7% respectively [2][4]. - The projected PE ratios for the company are 40x for 2024, 30x for 2025, and 23x for 2026, indicating a decreasing trend as the company grows [2][5]. Cash Flow Analysis - The company’s net cash flow from operating activities is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 479 million yuan in 2024 and 538 million yuan in 2025 [7]. - The capital expenditure is projected to decrease from 462 million yuan in 2023 to 299 million yuan in 2024, indicating a more efficient allocation of resources [7].