Changshu Bank(601128) 东海证券·2024-10-25 09:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's overall asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.77%, slightly up by 1 basis point from the previous quarter [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 8.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.976 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net interest margin for the first three quarters is 2.75%, down 20 basis points year-on-year, reflecting ongoing pressure on the asset side [3][4]. - Investment income has shown a significant decline in Q3, dropping to 222 million yuan from 498 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to a weaker bond market [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved an operating income of 8.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit of 2.976 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [3][4]. - The total asset scale as of June 30 is 362.743 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.44% [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.77%, with a provision coverage ratio of 528.4%, down by 10.41 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company has seen an increase in the proportion of loans under special attention, rising by 16 basis points to 1.52% [3]. Loan and Deposit Trends - Q3 saw a weaker growth in personal loans, while bill discounting remained strong, indicating a shift in demand [3][4]. - The company continues to maintain a strong deposit growth, significantly outperforming the M2 growth rate, with a slight increase in the proportion of demand deposits [3][4]. Interest Margin and Investment Income - The net interest margin is under pressure, with a quarterly measurement of 2.67%, down 8 basis points from the previous quarter and 18 basis points year-on-year [3][4]. - Investment income has decreased significantly in Q3, attributed to a weaker bond market and regulatory constraints on investment scale [4]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting operating revenues of 10.859 billion, 11.487 billion, and 12.732 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.840 billion, 4.235 billion, and 4.765 billion yuan [4][11]. - The company is expected to benefit from a high proportion of fixed-term deposits amidst declining interest rates, and its overall asset quality remains robust [4].