LZJT(300428) 德邦证券·2024-10-25 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lizhong Group (300428 SZ) [1] Core Views - Lizhong Group's Q3 2024 profits declined year-over-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 32 85% to 111 million yuan [2] - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 19 37 billion yuan, up 13 09% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19 09% to 493 million yuan [2] - Lizhong Group is a leader in the recycled aluminum industry, with recycled aluminum procurement volume reaching 351 3 thousand tons in H1 2024, up 28 68% year-over-year [3] - The company recently secured a large order worth 5 53 billion yuan, which is expected to contribute to future performance [3] - The company's non heat treatment alloy materials have received certifications and project approvals from major new energy vehicle manufacturers, potentially boosting profitability [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The report forecasts Lizhong Group's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 27 46 billion yuan, 31 47 billion yuan, and 35 98 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 712 million yuan, 1 01 billion yuan, and 1 16 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [3] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 16 53x, 11 71x, and 10 15x for 2024-2026 [3] Industry and Market Position - Lizhong Group is one of the largest recycled casting aluminum alloy producers in China, with a strong focus on green development [3] - The company benefits from national policies promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, which are expected to drive the recycled metal industry [3] - Lizhong Group has expanded its overseas aluminum alloy production capacity, leveraging its global layout for dual-cycle development in recycled aluminum resource utilization [3] Key Developments - The company's non heat treatment alloy materials have entered the mass production phase, with further R&D efforts to expand their application in various fields [3] - Subsidiaries have received significant orders for aluminum wheel projects, with expected sales of 5 24 billion yuan and 290 million yuan over their respective project lifecycles [3]